KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The primary metric used by the Johnson County Department of Health and Environment to determine its recommendation for which learning mode schools should use spiked into the red Friday morning.
According to updated health department data, the incidence rate in Johnson County, or the number of new cases per 100,000 people over the past two weeks, rose to 307.
"We are really at a tipping point," JCDHE Director Dr. Sanmi Areola said. "We're very close to losing control over this virus."
He's not alone in that bleak assessment.
“What we know is that the hospitals in the area are getting busy and it’s getting harder to get transfers in to Kansas City from outlying areas because hospitals are busy and they are full,” Dr. Steven Stites with the University of Kansas Health System said.
Johnson County reported it’s highest number of new infections since the start of the pandemic on Friday with 287 new infections reported overnight, the most its health department has reported in any single day.
“We have never had to overflow from one ICU because all the beds are taken to another ICU for one entity," Dr. Dana Hawkinson with the University Of Kansas Health System said. "So, that has never happened for influenza, that's never happened for pneumococcal pneumonia, so again pointing out the fact that COVID-19 is a different entity."
According to the below table, any incidence rate above 251 puts the county into the red zone.
While incidence rate isn’t the only metric used to determine the recommended learning mode, it is the primary metric.
The county also considers the 14-day positivity rate, which was listed as 8.6% on Friday morning. That puts schools in the "yellow" zone, per the county's recommendations. That positivity rate, which has been steadily increasing throughout October, is now the highest since mid-April.
Despite the jump in the incidence rate into the red zone, a JCDHE spokesperson said Friday that health officials consider other factors before making their final recommendation for schools, which remained in the "orange" zone for now.
"We also have to factor in that the schools have been doing a good job," Areola said. "They have been quickly identifying cases. We haven't had any major outbreaks in any of our school buildings, which means that the steps put in place in the schools are working."
Nothing changes with school learning modes for the time being.
"It almost feels like there's no right answer,” John Calvert, director of the Safe and Secure Schools Unit with the Kansas State Department of Education, said.
The incident rate fluctuated between the orange and red zones between July and October before shooting up to 307 on Friday.
Areola said he understands some people want the department to immediately change its school recommendations, but health officials decided against a knee-jerk reaction.
"I also want people to understand the intent is not to be going back-and-forth because numbers are changing from red or orange, orange to red," Areola said. "If we do that, we're going to lose the stability our schools need."
Three of the six school districts in Johnson County — Shawnee Mission, Olathe and Gardner Edgerton — follow the county health department's gating criteria.
The De Soto and Blue Valley school districts follow the Kansas State Department of Education gating criteria.
Spring Hill follows the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's guidelines using Kansas Department of Health and Environment data.
“We are weighing tons of options and, yes, the case count in Johnson County could be high and could put them in the red, but there's a lot of other things in this criteria that we take into account and it's an overall,” Calvert said.
None of the districts were available for comment Friday, but a spokesperson at Shawnee Mission said, "We follow the science, and need to wait to hear from JCDHE on what the data means. Before then, public conversations are premature."
Data from the state health department shows children 17 and younger are far less likely to get the virus. Doctors stress the responsibility is on the community to be safe, because they only anticipate numbers going up.
"Really, outbreaks in schools don't happen and, if they do, they're pretty isolated outbreaks," Hawkinson said. "What's more is the large gatherings — the bars, the restaurants, the get-togethers with friends and families — that seems to be more in play."
Areola said he's not worried about infections in schools contributing to a community-wide spread COVID-19, but rather the other way around.
"The numbers are very concerning," he said. "It's increasing. It's not a level we can sustain. If we want to keep schools open with minimal restrictions, if we want hybrid or in-person learning options, we have to do better."
A Johnson County health department spokesperson told 41 Action News they are working to identify the source of the spike in new cases.
When asked why the recommendation for schools had not moved to the red zone, the health department sent this statement to 41 Action News:
We also consider the risk of spread within the school building which can be minimized by the schools’ ability to implement mitigation measures (e.g., masking, distancing, etc.). Other considerations are factors such as student mental health, educational needs, and the impacts on families and school staff. These factors must be considered together in order to determine the safest recommended learning mode.
We continue to monitor these metrics daily and will make additional recommendations to the districts when/if our ability to implement mitigation measures become challenged. We have also been clear that districts will make decisions that are best for them in consultation with their parents, teachers, staff and school boards.
It is always safer for schools to offer in-person learning when community transmission is low. What is more important now is that we all continue to work to break the transmission cycle in Johnson County by wearing masks appropriately and consistently, physically distancing, washing hands frequently, staying home when sick and getting a flu shot.
The orange phase, which the county currently is recommending for schools, allows elementary schools to be in-person, while middle and high schools should remain remote, though hybrid learning may be acceptable if actions are taken to mitigate the risk of spread.
In the red phase, all students should learn remotely, according to the county’s recommendations.
Most schools in Johnson County, including the Shawnee Mission School District, have transitioned older students into some form of hybrid learning.
