KSHB 41 reporter Charlie Keegan covers politics on both sides of the state line. If you have a story idea to share, you can send Charlie an email at charlie.keegan@kshb.com.
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The statistic is almost hard to believe: from 1904 to 2004, Missouri voters elected the presidential candidate who went on to win the election 25 out of 26 times. The only exception was 1956 when Missouri picked Adlai Stevenson instead of Dwight D. Eisenhower.
“Missouri was the classic swing state for years,” explained Debra Leiter, an associate professor at the University of Missouri-Kansas City’s Department of Political Science & Philosophy.
Missouri’s swing state, or bellwether status, ended in 2008 when voters elected Sen. John McCain over Sen. Barack Obama.
Missouri is now solidly red, even on the state level. From governor to treasurer, every leader elected to statewide office is a Republican. Since 2000, Missourians have picked the Republican presidential candidate.
“Usually that is associated with lower state taxes, but also less state spending,” Leiter explained what often happens when Republicans gain control.
Ambassador Allan Katz had a different reason for the change. Before serving as ambassador to Portugal, Katz helped Democrats strategize ahead of the 2008 election. He thinks the party’s commitment to cultural causes may have turned off some Missouri voters. Now the party is digging out of a hole.
“The party that’s in the minority has a very difficult time raising money, recruiting candidates, and having a real campaign,” Katz said. “It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy after a while.”
Mayor Quinton Lucas, a Democrat, believes Missouri lost its bellwether status as Republicans won races in the suburbs of Kansas City.
“Years ago, you had Ike Skelton in a congressional seat for not just Lexington but points east. You had folks south of us in Harrisonville and other places in county-wide offices. You gotta try to build that back up,” Lucas explained.
Voters believe a Democrat can win a statewide office. In fact, they don’t want either party dominating all the leadership positions.
“For me, it’d be nice to have some mix in there,” Chad Brausen said. “I think if you have a one-party rule, it doesn’t really the voice of the people in my opinion.”
Other voters are confident the bellwether status will return one day.
“The pendulum swings one way, then it swings the other way. Sometimes it comes back to the middle, stays there for a little while, and then swings another way,” Bruce Clippinger said.
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