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High-profile ballot measures — like the abortion rights, sports gambling and minimum-wage proposals that will be placed on the November ballot in Missouri — can drive voter turnout.
Republicans used Defense of Marriage Amendments in 2004 to bolster George W. Bush’s re-election campaign — according to Greg Vonnahme, an associate professor of Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of Missouri-Kansas City.
It worked, but don’t expect a Blue Wave driven by these ballot measures in the Show-Me State.
“In Missouri, we're not really expecting many of the statewide seats to be that competitive, so whether or not that is going to help statewide Democrats win any of those seats? Probably not,” Vonnahme said. “The races may be closer than they otherwise would be.”
That doesn’t mean there won’t be any potential impact. Vonnahme said more localized races could see a bump that favors candidates who support the ballot measures.
“Could the ballot items impact some down ballot races? You’d probably have to go a ways down the ballot,” Vonnahme said. “There may be some state house or state senate races that are close that could tip based on voter turnout for these ballot initiatives. But anything at the federal level, I don't think anything's going to be that close where we'd see a significant difference.”
Even if Democrats do make some gains in the legislature, it won’t dent the GOP supermajority.
But Missouri voters have a history of passing these kinds of initiatives. The initiative-petition process has been used to expand Medicaid, legalize marijuana, and increase the minimum wage before.
Voters will see three seemingly popular issues in November.
“Abortion rights have been pretty unstoppable in the last couple of years, even in very Republican states,” Vannahme said. “Minimum wage has also been consistent. Missouri has passed a previous minimum wage increase. This one includes paid sick leave, and it'll be interesting to see how voters respond to that.”
For two years, sports gambling has hit an impasse in the Missouri legislature, but it’s also a good bet to pass. It’s legal in every border state except Oklahoma.
“When neighboring states legalize sports gambling, it does create this competitive pressure on other states to do it, because, even if they themselves left to their own devices may not want to legalize sports gambling, they'll feel that pressure because their citizens, their residents can still access those services.”
Polling suggests Democrats more heavily support these ballot measures, but Vannahme said there’s potentially strong bipartisan support.
“A number of these items are also quite popular with Republican voters — minimum wage polls consistently well among Republicans and Democrats,” he said. “We've seen abortion do quite well even in some very red states and some very red areas.”
Abortion is likely to draw the most headlines — and money, which will be unlimited since there aren’t campaign contribution limits on ballot questions like there are for candidates.
Kansans voted down an amendment that would have restricted abortion in the state two years ago. Now, Missouri voters will get a chance to weigh in on the issue.
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