KANSAS CITY, Mo. — In order to make our long-range forecast, we use the LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle) ,which states that a unique pattern sets up in October and November and begins cycling through the winter, spring, summer and into the very early part of the following fall.
When the LRC was forming this season, back in October 2024, we were in a moderate to extreme drought.
The rest of the fall and winter season as the new pattern became set, we had enough precipitation to not only get rid of the drought, but keep it away.
Rainfall and melted snow since October 2024 at Kansas City International Airport, our official reporting station, received 11.86”. Average is 11.82”. There were other locations that saw 12”-13” of rain/melted snow.
We expect the trend of slightly above-average rainfall to continue through June. This is good news for all the yards and farms.
Rainfall should be above average for most of the growing areas east of the Rockies. This includes areas that plant corn, soybean, Hard Red Winter Wheat and Spring Wheat.
This will help out with other drought areas from the Dakotas to Texas.
Temperatures over the fall and winter ended up slightly above average. Now, January and February ended up much below average.
We are expecting temperatures to run near to slightly above average through June. There will be a chance to see one to three brief heat waves during the summer. A heat wave is three straight days with highs of 95° or higher.
Temperatures will run near to above average for most locations across the USA, except the Pacific Northwest.
What does it all mean? We expect near to slightly above average rainfall which would put us around 15” of rain. We average 14.62” of rain April through June.
Temperatures will run near to slightly above average. What is average? Our average highs increase from 65° to 85° and our average lows increase from 44° to 64° between April 1 and June 30.
There is just a 15% chance that we get into a drought this Spring. Because you never say never with the weather in Kansas City.
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