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What does path to victory look like for Missouri’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate?

Democrat Crystal Quade will face Republican Mike Kehoe in November
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Quade-Kehoe

KSHB 41 reporter Charlie Keegan covers political issues impacting the Kansas City region. Have a story idea to share with Charlie? Send him an e-mail.

Crystal Quade addressed supporters Tuesday night after winning the Democratic primary in Missouri’s gubernatorial race and told supporters the state is ready for a change.

“Folks are ready for something different," Quade said. "Missouri is ready for a governor who puts its people first."

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Crystal Quade

Quade will find out how ready Missourians are come November's election.

The Democrat has an uphill battle to beat Republican Mike Kehoe in a state that’s elected Republican governors in the past two elections and has a state legislature dominated by the GOP.

“I will work with anyone who has good ideas to make our state safer, stronger, and better," Kehoe told his supporters after his primary victory Tuesday. "As long as we end up with a common sense, conservative solution, we will govern.”

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Mike Kehoe

Dr. Matt Harris, an associate professor of political science at Park University, said Kehoe will have the advantage in November.

Harris believes Quade’s best chance at victory is if Kehoe hurts himself.

“If the Republican forgets to campaign or says something absolutely heinous, maybe you see a closer race, maybe you see the Democrat pull it off,” Harris said.

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Matt Harris, PhD

During a call Wednesday, Missouri Democratic Party Chair Russ Carnahan told reporters he anticipates a question asking voters whether to restore abortion rights will be on the November ballot.

“We expect record numbers of women and young people to come out,” he said.

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Russ Carnahan

Harris said those voting groups tend to lean Democrat, but he doubts they will be powerful enough to flip the results of the gubernatorial race.

“Voters can compartmentalize these things to a certain extent and say I think abortion should be legal, but I also want a Republican governor,” Harris said.

The Secretary of State has until August 13 to announce whether the petition to place the question about abortion rights on the ballot reached the certification threshold.

Democrats have won five of the past eight gubernatorial elections in Missouri behind Mel Carnahan, Bob Holden, and Jay Nixon. Nixon last won the gubernatorial election in 2012.