At a U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee organized by Democrats on Tuesday, a researcher from a pro-immigration group said the economy would tank if President-elect Donald Trump deports millions of undocumented immigrants.
"The president-elect's mass deportation plans would crash the American economy," said Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, senior fellow at the American Immigration Council. "Even an attempt to deport millions of people will have repercussions."
Truth be told, many economists say removing millions of immigrants from the workforce would cause a costly shock to already tight labor markets and stressed supply chains.
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The industries likely to take the hardest hits are farming, construction, hospitality and food services.
Supporters of Trump's plan argue that reducing the number of immigrants in the labor force willing to take low-paying jobs could result in higher wages for Americans who fill those positions.
Several studies, however, show those better-paying jobs would end up driving up prices for consumers.
"Building, maintaining and repairing houses would become more expensive, as would groceries, restaurants, travel and child care," Reichlin-Melnick said.
A model by the independent Peterson Institute for International Economics shows prices would rise by about 9%, while U.S. production and employment would fall.
America might have seen a preview of what might happen just after the pandemic when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said "a plunge in immigration" was one reason inflation rose so high.
There is also the huge expense of carrying out deportations, which could cost hundreds of billions of dollars.
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While no one can say for sure how the economy would respond to a forced exodus of immigrants on a scale the country has never seen, Trump has said deporting undocumented immigrants is too important and necessary to consider the price tag.
Trump transition spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt disputed forecasts of economic gloom.
"President Trump will enlist every federal power and coordinate with state authorities to institute the largest deportation operation ... while simultaneously lowering costs for families and strengthening our workforce," a statement attributed to Leavitt said.
