KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The perfect storm came together for New England in 2007.
Quarterback Tom Brady was at the height of his powers, and the Patriots added Randy Moss in his prime to the receiving corps.
The Bill Belichick-led defense was filthy led by All-Pros Mike Vrabel and Asante Samuel.
Everything came together for a near-perfect season.
New England finished the regular season 16-0 and would have joined the 1972 Miami Dolphins in undefeated immortality were it not for David Tyree’s helmet catch in a Giant-sized Super Bowl XLII upset.
I still think there’s a season for Patrick Mahomes in a Chiefs uniform when a similar chase toward history takes place, even with a 17th regular-season game.
It’s just hard to imagine a similar perfect storm will settle in over Kansas City in a year with so many changes on offense — two new tackles, turnover at wide receiver, new offensive coordinator — and against the backdrop of Chris Jones’ holdout, which makes the defense more vulnerable.
In other words, Tod Palmer won’t be predicting a perfect season, but he does think the Chiefs can match another bit of Patriots history.
Here’s how he sees the 2023 season shaking out for the Chiefs:
Week 1 vs. Detroit
Time/date (TV): 7:20 p.m. on Thursday, Sept. 7 (KSHB 41)
The All-Hype Bowl: Can the Chiefs repeat? Are the Lions for real?
Dan Campbell’s crew is a trendy playoff pick and has a powerhouse offense, which added future stud RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta in the draft and remains the brainchild of OC Ben Johnson.
Detroit’s defense can get after the passer, so the key — as is often the case — will be in the trenches with the Chiefs breaking in two new tackles and the Lions likely to see a pass rush that’s missing Chris Jones (contract holdout) and Charles Omenihu (suspension).
But Kansas City will be amped for its opener, and Patrick Mahomes remains > Jared Goff, so give me the Chiefs in a shootout.
Palmer’s pick: Chiefs 41, Lions 30
Week 2 at Jacksonville
Time/date (TV): Noon on Sunday, Sept. 17 (CBS)
The Chiefs swept both ends of the Reid Coaching Tree Bowl last season, including an AFC Divisional showdown when Mahomes got hurt.
Andy Reid is a master at having his offense start the season in high gear. His protege, Doug Pederson, surely picked up some tricks, but Reid gets more time to prepare for this one.
Palmer’s pick: Chiefs 34, Jaguars 27
Week 3 vs. Chicago
Time/date (TV): 3:25 p.m. on Sunday, Sept. 24 (Fox)
The Be Serious Kevin Holmes Bowl* will showcase Justin Fields, who should continue to grow into a star at quarterback.
But for all the acclaim his athleticism and running garnered last season, he’s still a below-average NFL passer who’s yet to learn to close games, and Steve Spagnuolo can exploit that.
* Holmes — a Chicago native, beloved anchor at KSHB 41 with an incredible laugh and all-around good guy (support his Gift of Sole initiative) — may be insufferable this week, frfr!
Palmer’s pick: Chiefs 31, Bears 20
Week 4 at New York Jets
Time/date (TV): 7:20 p.m. on Sunday, Oct. 1 (KSHB 41)
The Mahomes-Rodgers (Finally!) Bowl. It’s the third time their teams have met, but maybe we’ll finally get Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers on the same field.
A knee injury sidelined Mahomes in 2019 — the Chiefs haven't let him run a QB sneak since — and COVID-19 sidelined Rodgers in 2021. That left fans with less tantalizing Rodgers vs. Matt Moore and Mahomes vs. Jordan Love showdowns.
Hopefully, the two future Hall of Famers will take the field together in primetime and the sparks will fly.
Palmer’s pick: Chiefs 27, Jets 24
Week 5 at Minnesota
Time/date (TV): 3:25 p.m. on Sunday, Oct. 8 (CBS)
The Netflix’s “Quarterback” Bowl won’t be an easy road game for Kansas City, which has struggled against elite wide receivers and may again with the Chiefs likely to be blitz-happy to create pressure.
Statistically, the second quarter of the season has been the worst for Mahomes, who is 12-7 in Weeks 5 through 8 in his career compared to 17-3 (Weeks 1-4), 16-3 (Weeks 9-12) and 19-3 (Week 13+).
The Vikings were great last season in one-score games, but I think the magic is exhausted.
Palmer’s pick: Chiefs 30, Vikings 27
Week 6 vs. Denver
Time/date (TV): 7:15 p.m. on Thursday, Oct. 12 (Prime Video)
The We Promise We Matter Under Sean Payton Bowl features a Broncos team that has generated some buzz after luring Payton back to the sideline.
Of course, they still have a diminished Russell Wilson at quarterback.
Palmer’s pick: Chiefs 31, Broncos 17
Week 7 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Time/date (TV): 3:25 p.m. on Sunday, Oct. 22 (CBS)
The Welcome to Kansas City Charles Omenihu Bowl should see the former Houston and San Francisco DE make his Chiefs debut.
The Chargers always play the Chiefs tough but also seem to wilt when it matters most — and will again in the Drue Tranquill Bowl.
Palmer’s pick: Chiefs 37, Chargers 31 (OT)
Week 8 at Denver
Time/date (TV): 3:25 p.m. on Sunday, Oct. 29 (CBS)
Meeting for the second time in 17 days, Denver will be eager for revenge (I think!) and relevancy (new coach, new owners, new push to end a seven-year playoff drought) in the Second Crack at the Reigning Kings Bowl. It won’t matter.
Palmer’s pick: Chiefs 41, Broncos 24
Week 9 vs. Miami
Time/date (TV): 8:30 a.m. on Sunday, Nov. 5, at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany (KSHB 41)
The Tyreek Hill Bowl is taking place in Germany, so sadly we won’t get to find out how the GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium faithful would greet the former star wide receiver.
Should be a fun one, albeit an early alarm for Chiefs Kingdom!
This could also become the Wait, Chris Jones Really Came Back for the Germany Game Bowl, if his contract holdout drags into the middle of the season.
Palmer’s pick: Chiefs 35, Dolphins 30
Week 11 vs. Philadelphia
Time/date (TV): 7:15 p.m. on Monday, Nov. 20 (ESPN)
I think the Super Bowl Revenge Bowl is where the Chiefs’ unbeaten run ends — a rematch of Super Bowl LVII against a highly motivated flock of Eagles before a primetime audience.
Palmer’s pick: Eagles 34, Chiefs 30
Week 12 at Las Vegas
Time/date (TV): 3:25 p.m. on Sunday, Nov. 26 (CBS)
The Arrowhead West Bowl won’t feature Derek Carr anymore, and the Raiders are still the Raiders.
Palmer’s pick: Chiefs 37, Raiders 25
Week 13 at Green Bay
Time/date (TV): 7:20 p.m. on Sunday, Dec. 3 (KSHB 41)
The Who Needs A-Rod Bowl is slated for primetime and should stay there if Jordan Love lives up to his draft stock and follows the path of his predecessor.
Matt LaFleur is a good coach, so expect the Packers to get better as the season goes along.
Remember: Green Bay in December is no joke.
Palmer’s pick: Chiefs 24, Packers 20
Week 14 vs. Buffalo
Time/date (TV): 3:25 p.m. on Sunday, Dec. 10 (CBS)
The Why Do We Always Have to Play Them There Bowl probably has Bills fans irritated as it marks the sixth game at Arrowhead among the seven meetings between the teams since the 2015 season.
Two were playoff games, but still, the NFL schedule quirks seem to force Josh Allen’s bison to roam the plains as frequently as it makes the Chiefs trek to Foxboro.
Anytime Mahomes and Allen, two of the top three QBs in the AFC meet, it’s appointment TV.
Palmer’s pick: Bills 33, Chiefs 23
Week 15 at New England
Time/date (TV): 7:15 p.m. on Monday, Dec. 18 (ESPN)
The Why Do We Always Have to Play Them There Bowl II features the Chiefs playing at the Patriots for the seventh time in 10 meetings, including the playoffs, since the 2008 season.
But this is a far cry from the Brady-Mahomes days and, if New England’s season craters, could be a flex candidate under ESPN’s new broadcasting rules with several other intriguing matchups on tap that week.
Palmer’s pick: Chiefs 28, Patriots 16
Week 16 vs. Las Vegas
Time/date (TV): Noon on Christmas (a Monday!) (CBS)
The NFL Hates Santa Claus Bowl or Josh McDaniels Coaching for His Job Again Bowl should be great for social-media content of parents giving their kids tickets to the game. Feel free to tag me in those on Twitter or The ’Gram.
Mahomes and Reid know better than to let the Raiders play Grinch on Christmas Day at Arrowhead.
Palmer’s pick: Chiefs 37, Raiders 17
Week 17 vs. Cincinnati
Time/date (TV): 3:25 p.m. on New Year’s Eve (a Sunday!) (CBS)
The Know Your Role and Shut Your Mouth You Jabroni Bowl is a rematch of the last two AFC Championship Games — and possibly a preview of the 2023 season’s conference title game.
Bet there won’t be any “Burrowhead” talk this time around, though I think it’s all in good fun! Maybe the Chiefs will have a chance to wrap up the top seed, and they'll get it done, right?
Palmer’s pick: Chiefs 29, Bengals 27
Week 18 at Los Angeles Chargers
Time/date (TV): TBD (TBD)
If everything goes according to plan, it will be a free trip home for Reid, who is prepping and coaching backups as the Chargers jockey for playoff seeding.
Palmer’s pick: Chargers 31, Chiefs 23
Playoff Predictions
AFC seeds
1. Kansas City 14-3
2. Cincinnati 12-5
3. Jacksonville 11-6
4. Buffalo 10-7
5. New York Jets 10-7
6. Los Angeles Chargers 10-7
7. Baltimore 9-8
Wild card playoffs
(2) Bengals over (7) Ravens
(6) Chargers over (3) Jaguars
(5) Jets over (4) Bills
Divisional playoffs
(1) Chiefs over (6) Chargers
(2) Bengals over (5) Jets
AFC Championship Game
(1) Chiefs over (2) Bengals
NFC seeds
1. Philadelphia 12-5
2. San Francisco 11-6
3. Detroit 10-7
4. New Orleans 9-8
5. Dallas 11-6
6. Seattle 9-8
7. Minnesota 9-8
Wild card playoffs
(2) 49ers over (7) Vikings
(3) Lions over (6) Seahawks
(5) Cowboys over (4) Saints
Divisional playoffs
(5) Cowboys over (1) Eagles
(2) 49ers over (2) Lions
NFC Championship Game
(2) 49ers over (5) Cowboys
Super Bowl LVIII
(1) Chiefs over (2) 49ers
It's a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, Kansas City's comeback win to snap a 50-year title drought five years ago in Miami, the Chiefs become the first repeat Super Bowl champions since the 2003-04 Patriots.
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