KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The NFL playoffs are set.
Now, the Kansas City Chiefs, who earned the No. 3 seed in the AFC, begin the quest to become the first repeat Super Bowl champions since the 2003-04 New England Patriots next Saturday night against Miami at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Baltimore earned the top seed and a first-round bye, while Buffalo stormed back to finish the season with a five-game win streak and snatch the AFC East title away from the Dolphins.
The Bills, which also won the No. 2 seed, host Pittsburgh.
The third AFC Wild Card features Cleveland’s filthy defense and a rejuvenated Joe Flacco traveling to Houston, where rookie quarterback CJ Stroud will try to become an instant Texans legend.
San Francisco earned the NFC's top seed and has a bye along with the Ravens next weekend, but here’s a breakdown of the NFL’s Super Wild Card weekend:
2023 NFL playoff schedule
Super Wild Card Round
Saturday, Jan. 13
(5) Cleveland, 11-6, at (4) Houston, 10-7
Kickoff time (TV): 3:30 p.m. (KSHB 41/Peacock)
Analysis: This is a sneaky good game. The Browns’ defense has been among the best in the NFL this season, but Texans rookie quarterback CJ Stroud has been electric.
Can Stroud cement himself as an elite young NFL QB with a win in his playoff debut? Coach DeMeco Ryans hopes so, but a win would be gravy for Houston this season, which rebounded from a few years in the NFL wilderness with an AFC South champion and found its quarterback of the future.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is starting a former Super Bowl champion at quarterback in — checks notes — Joe Flacco.
The Super Bowl XLVII MVP, Flacco hadn’t started more than four games in an NFL season since 2019, but he’s rejuvenated his career, which included a 96-67 record as the starter in 11 seasons from 2008 to 2018 with Baltimore, after signing late in the season with the Browns.
Does the fairy tale have more than one chapter left? I don’t know, but I can’t wait to find out.
Prediction: Browns 27, Texans 17
(6) Miami, 11-6, at (3) Kansas City, 11-6
Kickoff time (TV): 7 p.m. (KSHB 41/Peacock)
Analysis: The Dolphins are beat up and fumbled away the AFC East title with three losses in the last five games, including Sunday night’s loss to Buffalo.
Defensive ends Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips suffered season-ending injuries and both top running backs, Raheem Mostert and Davon Achane, have battled injuries throughout the season.
Still, Tua Tagovailoa has formed a dangerous connection with Tyreek Hill and, if Jaylen Waddle’s healthy, they’ll present a challenge for the Chiefs’ defense.
Kansas City won a showdown with Miami in Frankfurt, Germany, two months ago, but the Chiefs’ offense didn’t score in the second half and it was a defensive touchdown that separated the teams.
Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s offense has been more Clark Kent than Superman this season, but it’s still tough to bet against Andy Reid in the playoffs since Mahomes’ arrival.
Outside of a Super Bowl LV loss at Tampa Bay without their starting offensive tackles, the Chiefs have never been beaten in regulation since Mahomes became the starter during the 2018 season.
Enjoy the sub-zero wind chill Mike McDaniel and company!
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 21
Sunday, Jan. 14
(7) Pittsburgh, 10-7, at (2) Buffalo, 11-6
Kickoff time (TV): Noon (CBS)
Analysis: The Bills were nearly written off in late November after losing three of four, including a Monday night meltdown against Denver and an OT loss at Philadelphia.
Sitting at 6-6, Sean McDermott’s squad was teetering and there was talk of a rest near the Canadian border.
Five wins later, including Sunday night’s showdown for the AFC East title at Miami, Buffalo is the No. 2 seed in the AFC and will be among the favorites to reach Super Bowl LVIII next month at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
Josh Allen played a terrible first half against the Dolphins, but the defense stiffened and he rallied the Bills with his mega arm and gritty running ability.
Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills, who shouldn’t have too much trouble — you wouldn’t think — against a Pittsburgh team that probably will be without NFL sack leader TJ Watt, who was injured during Saturday’s win at Baltimore that allowed the Steelers to sneak into the postseason.
Prediction: Bills 34, Steelers 10
(7) Green Bay, 9-8, at (2) Dallas, 12-5
Kickoff time (TV): 3:30 p.m. (Fox)
Analysis: The Cowboys are 8-0 at home this season, so winning the NFC East was critical for Mike McCarthy’s squad, because it ensures at least the first two possible playoff games at AT&T Stadium. Dak Prescott completed 10% more of his passes and has thrown twice as many touchdowns at home in 2023.
The Packers, who needed a win Sunday against Chicago to grab the final Wild Card spot, have won five of their last seven games, including a win Dec. 3 against the Chiefs.
Matt LaFleur’s crew started 2-5 on the road in Jordan Love’s first season as the starter, but Green Bay won its last two games on the road to close the regular season — albeit, the victories came at Carolina and Minnesota — before beating the Bears at home to clinch a playoff berth.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Packers 20
(6) Los Angeles Rams, 10-7, at (3) Detroit, 12-5
Kickoff time (TV): 7 p.m. (KSHB 41/Peacock)
Analysis: Is it the Jared Goff Bowl or the Matt Stafford Bowl? The Lions and Rams swapped the two Pro Bowl quarterbacks in March 2021 — a trade that’s worked out well for both teams.
Los Angeles considered Stafford the missing piece to a Super Bowl title, which proved prophetic in his first season as the Rams won Super Bowl LVI.
But Goff has played well for Detroit, which also used the picks acquired to rebuild under third-year coach Dan Campbell.
The Rams are a balanced offense with Kyren Williams rolling and record-setting rookie receiver Puka Nacua complementing Cooper Kupp as high-volume targets, but the Lions are old-school tough.
Prediction: Rams 27, Lions 24
Monday, Jan. 15
(5) Philadelphia, 11-6, at (4) Tampa Bay, 9-8
Kickoff time (TV): 7 p.m. (ESPN/ABC)
Analysis: The reigning NFC champion Eagles limp into the playoffs having lost five of their final six games, including ugly losses to Arizona and at the New York Giants to close the regular season.
Philly’s defense has struggled after losing several key players to free agency after last season’s Super Bowl LVII loss, but more surprising has been the way Jalen Hurts and the offense have cratered late in the season.
Nick Sirianni’s crew faces one of the hottest teams in the NFL in the Buccaneers.
After starting the post-Tom Brady era 4-7 under his successor, Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay has won five of six games down the stretch to claim the NFC South title.
Granted, it wasn’t exactly a Murderer’s Row with a sweep of moribund Carolina and a win at Atlanta in the mix, but the Bucs did throttle the Packers in Green Bay and roughed up Jacksonville.
Mayfield’s only prior playoff experience came in 2020 when he led Cleveland to a Wild Card win at Pittsburgh and had the Browns in position to upset Kansas City in the Divisional Round before Chad Henne’s late-game heroics in place of an injured Patrick Mahomes.
Prediction: Eagles 23, Buccaneers 20
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