KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Dee Ford finally had a breakout season for the Kansas City Chiefs, but it’s not likely to translate into a long-term deal with the team that selected him with the No. 23 pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.
The Chiefs have four emerging or established stars whose rookie deals are nearly up, but salary-cap economics dictate all four can’t get a big payday.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is in line for a big payday after next season, while wide receiver Tyreek Hill and defensive lineman Chris Jones are candidates for big-money extensions this offseason.
That should mean Ford, whose injury history and lack of consistency and production before a breakout contract year, is at the end of that line for an extension — though he will return, barring an offseason trade.
“We’re excited about bringing him back,” Chiefs general manager Brett Veach said of Ford during a mid-February interview.
That means Ford probably will be hit with the franchise sometime before March 5, which is the NFL deadline for teams to tag players.
“It has to be (a no-brainer), because anytime you’ve got a good, young pass rusher, if you let him hit the open market, that guarantees you’re going to lose him,” CBS Sports writer and NFL salary-cap expert Joel Corry said on a recent 4th and 1 podcast. “The way teams will pay him will make it very enticing to leave.”
Corry expects Ford and three other edge rushers out of contract — Seattle’s Frank Clark, Houston’s Jadeveon Clowney and Dallas’ DeMarcus Lawrence — to be franchise tagged this offseason.
Lawrence, who already played last season on the franchise tag, is the best candidate for a long-term extension, which may wind up in the $20 million range per year.
By contrast, the franchise tag cost for a 4-3 defensive end is expected to be roughly $17 million and the figure for a 3-4 outside linebacker — like Ford — will be around $15.5 million, according to Corry.
It’s not that Ford wasn’t productive. By some measures, he was the league’s most impactful edge rusher.
“Dee Ford had more pressures — by that, I mean combined quarterback hits, hurries and sacks — than any other edge rusher this year,” Corry said. “He had 78 to go along with his career-high 13 sacks.”
However, Mahomes and Hill are more integral and Jones, who had 15 1/2 sacks last season, was even more productive than Ford, who may command a nine-figure contract on the open market.
“With Dee, he had an outstanding season,” Veach said. “He was at the top of his game. Really, when we drafted Dee a few years ago, all those things we envisioned for him, he showed he was that player.”
Corry said last season’s production probably puts the baseline for Ford’s next deal “in Von Miller territory.” The Denver Broncos outside linebacker signed a six-year extension worth $114 million, including $72 million guaranteed, before the 2016 season.
New York Giants defensive end Olivier Vernon signed a five-year contract worth $85 million in 2016, but he averaged about seven sacks per year and never had more than 11 1/2.
That makes $17 million annually the floor for today’s edge rushers, who will probably see long-term deals come in shy of Aaron Donald ($22.5 million) and Khalil Mack’s ($23.5 million) record-setting deals.
“The wild card to me is Trey Flowers,” Corry said. “New England probably won’t tag him. If all these guys are tagged and don’t get deals, he could get something crazy on the open market. That wouldn’t surprise me, because he has connections that need ends.”
Former New England Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is entering his second season as the Detroit Lions’ coach and needs edge-rushing help.
New Miami Dolphins coach Brian Flores spent the last 11 years in New England’s defensive staff, including the last three as linebackers coach.
The Chiefs also poached Patriots defensive line coach Brendan Daly, making Kansas City a logical landing place as well.
However, with limited cap space, it seems unlikely the Chiefs would enter, much less win, a bidding war for Flowers’ services.
“I don’t see the Chiefs being major players in free agency,” Corry said. “Depending upon where the cap comes in, your cap room right now is in the $27 million range. If you stick a tag on Dee Ford, you’ve cut that more than in half. … I think you’re going to see more of an exodus than an influx.”
