KANSAS CITY, Mo. — If Travis Kelce can’t play Thursday, or if he’s limited after hyperextended his knee Tuesday at practice, it’s a big blow to the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense.
But just how big?
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Kelce is a future first-ballot Pro Football Hall of Famer. He’s arguably put together the most-dominant five-year stretch any tight end has ever produced — averaging more than 101 catches, nearly 1,290 yards and more than nine touchdowns per season since 2018.
Injuries prevented Rob Gronkowski from ever sustaining such elite play and, frankly, there’s no one else worth mentioning.
Even more incredible, Kelce has aged like fine wine. During his age-33 season last season, he set career-highs for receptions (110) and touchdowns (12) and posted the second-most receiving yards (1,338) of any season.
Meanwhile, the rest of the Chiefs’ pass-catching group, seven wide receivers and two tight ends, remains relatively young.
Outside of Blake Bell, who is primarily a blocking tight end, the Chiefs don’t have anyone with more than five years of NFL experience, including a pair of wideouts — Justyn Ross and Rashee Rice — who’ve yet to take a snap in the league.
The difference in production from a career perspective is stark: Kelce has 344 more catches, 3,856 more yards and 38 more touchdowns than the rest of Kansas City’s receivers and tight ends combined.
It’s unreasonable and unfair to expect Noah Gray to suddenly become Kelce overnight, though he undoubtedly will play a bigger role in the offense — no matter Kelce’s ultimate availability Thursday against Detroit in the NFL opener, which can be seen on KSHB 41.
Fortunately, Kelce’s injury doesn’t seem serious or long-term, but the timing — after an offseason scheming for him and with another of the NFL’s elite scoring units headed to town — aren’t ideal.
So, who steps up?
The offseason conversation centered on Kadarius Toney being viewed as the Chiefs’ new No. 1 receiver — and that may prove to be true.
But as he continues to work back from a meniscus repair at the beginning of training camp, Toney may be on a pitch count and we probably won’t see that Thursday. Any production he provides will be gravy.
Kansas City’s coaches also talked up year-two Skyy Moore, so it’s reasonable to expect him to see his share of targets, but the reality is that no one player should be asked to account for Kelce’s absence.
It will need to be Moore and ...
Moore and some big plays from Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who I believe has earned Patrick Mahomes’ trust with his work ethic and intellect and could be in for a career year.
Moore and a surprising contribution from Richie James, who spent last season with the New York Giants and had a career year in the Brian Daboll/Mike Kafka offense — an offense with at least some influence from Andy Reid, given Kafka’s connection to Reid as a former quarterbacks coach.
Moore and some critical contributions from rookies Rashee Rice and Justyn Ross.
Rice struggled with drops during the preseason, but he also led the team in catches (14) and targets (19) and showed that he can get open in the NFL.
Then there’s Ross, who was a revelation in training camp and could emerge as a massive force over the middle and in the red zone. The 6-foot-4, 210-pound wunderkind, who has missed two of the last three seasons (including college) with neck and foot issues, should immediately slide into Fortson’s role as a gadget player in select sub-packages and could force his way into a more regular role as the season progresses.
The bottom line: There’s a lot of depth among the Chiefs’ pass-catchers. It’s not proven, certainly not to the extent of Kelce, but Mahomes still exists and the Lions will still have trouble accounting for the guys Kansas City can trot out play after play.
As long as Kelce’s not going to miss significant time, Chiefs fans should avoid pressing the panic button, take a deep breath and enjoy the greatest era in franchise history as it adds another chapter beginning Thursday night.
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