KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It is the prediction time of the year. People are giving their Super Bowl, division champions and playoff selections.
The Kansas City Chiefs face a unique challenge this season with AFC playoff hopefuls building their roster to keep up with or slow down the Chiefs offense.
The divisional 42-36 overtime playoff win for the Chiefs against the Buffalo arguably forced AFC foes to make that decision during this past off season.
The unknown factor for many is what life after Tyreek Hill will look like for the Chiefs offense. In my opinion, the beauty of that is AFC teams have been building their rosters for who the Chiefs were. They don't know yet who they will become.
This is an opportunity for Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the entire Chiefs staff to evolve their identity and force the league to keep chase.
I'm stating the obvious here, but the health of Mahomes, Chris Jones, Juju Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce and the Chiefs offensive line will have a big determining factor in these results coming true. Those players are what separate this team right now from being great or average.
I have a mental picture in my head of Mahomes this season like Liam Neeson in "Taken" or Denzel Washington in "Man on Fire." He is going to be relentless at proving himself until he accomplishes his goal.
I also believe two individuals who will have big impact on this season is senior assistant/quarterbacks coach Matt Nagy and defensive line coach Joe Cullen. They could be the difference in a Lombardi trophy.
Week 1 - Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals
The Chiefs begin their season where they hope to end it at State Farm stadium in Glendale, Arizona for Super Bowl LVII. Kansas City has an unknown factor about their offense headed into the season. The team has the benefit of seeing Vance Joseph from his time as the Denver Broncos head coach.
Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 in his three starts against Joseph. Kyler Murray not knocking the rust off in preseason games and a concerning secondary will likely be the key factors in giving the Chiefs a comfortable victory in week one.
Results: Chiefs 1-0
Week 2 - Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers were one of those rosters that added pieces to keep up with the Chiefs. Justin Herbert and his offense were able to take advantage of four Chiefs turnovers and a poor Chiefs pass defense to squeak out a 30-24 victory last season during week three.
This game will come down to the Chiefs offensive line keeping Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack away from Mahomes and the Chiefs defense getting the Chargers off the field before fourth down or forcing turnovers. I'm betting on the Chiefs in this Thursday night match up.
Result: Chiefs 2-0
Week 3 - Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts should have better balance with Matt Ryan at the helm. The loss of defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus will show up in this game with his replacement being Gus Bradley.
The Chiefs know Bradley's scheme very well, Mahomes saw it eight times and was 6-2 against it. This game will be a great test for the Chiefs run defense and play-action pass discipline, but Kansas City has the fire power to come out on top.
Result: Chiefs 3-0
Week 4- Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers will come into the game with some questions answered along the offensive line. There will be enough tape at this point to let opponents know how to pressure Tom Brady and if his offensive line can handle up to that amount of pressure.
Tampa Bay just feels like a team that is clinging on to borrowed time and hoping their defense can prop their offense up. I see Mahomes besting Brady in this Sunday Night match up.
Result: Chiefs 4-0
Week 5- Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders come into Monday Night football with a new coach in Josh McDaniels. At this point in the season, the Raiders will have played all their AFC West rivals before their week six bye.
The Raiders are a team in transition. I don't believe they will have an offensive line that allows McDaniels to showcase what his offense will be. I think the Raiders will give a strong showing, but are an offensive line rebuild away from being able to make serious noise in the division.
Result: Chiefs 5-0
Week 6- Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
This game won't take much for the team in Buffalo to get up for. They have a specific emotion that comes from the phrase 13 seconds and it has likely been a motivator for them all off-season.
They want to avenge their loss, but the interesting part for them is they will come into the game having played the Rams, Titans, Dolphins, Ravens and Steelers.
That is a nice blend of physicality and finesse before taking on the Chiefs. The Bills will know who they are by the time they play Kansas City in week six.
I have the Chiefs losing this game because mentally, Buffalo needs this victory and will throw their best stuff out there to do it. They are still learning that winning the war is much more important than the battle.
But the one factor that could swing this in the Chiefs favor is former Jacksonville Jaguars defensive coordinator Joe Cullen, who helped the Jaguars defeat the Bills 9-6. They sacked Josh Allen four times and forced two interceptions and two fumbles.
Result: Chiefs 5-1
Week 7 - Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
The Chiefs might be going against quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo at this point in the season. Kansas City will be strong in their run defense, but should match-up well against both quarterbacks.
Result: Chiefs 6-1
Week 8 - BYE
Week 9 - Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
The Titans were built on the power of the run game with Derrick Henry. Henry had over 700 touches in two seasons before he finally sustained an injury and missed half of the season. The team added on another 237 touches, putting over 955 touches in a three season span.
The effectiveness of the Titans offense is based on Henry and the play-action passing game that Ryan Tannehill is comfortable in. The Titans offensive line has slowly aged and decayed along the way.
Head coach Mike Vrabel will always have tough and physical teams, but this feels like a team that is on the doorstep of a rebuild, which allows the Chiefs to come away with another victory especially off a bye week.
Result: Chiefs 7-1
Week 10 - Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
Former Chiefs offensive coordinator Doug Pederson makes his second return to Kansas City. His first resulting in a 27-20 week two Philadelphia Eagles loss in Kansas City during the 2017 season. But Pederson likely didn't care as he helped the Eagles win a Lombardi trophy.
This will be the first time Pederson gets to see Mahomes in person. The Jaguars might be one of the surprises of the NFL.
They have quality built on a good roster foundation that was in desperate need of a culture change and a much better offense.
Pederson can provide that for them. This is a game where the Chiefs could get tripped up if the ball bounces the right way. But in my scenario, everything is sunny in Kansas City.
Result: Chiefs 8-1
Week 11 - Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
I had the Chiefs winning their first battle, but it might end up being switched. I think Kansas City will come away with a split against the Chargers. I assume in this scenario the Chargers defense is playing well and their offense has found its groove.
Result: Chiefs 8-2
Week 12 - Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs
The Rams will have gotten their best shots from the Bills, Falcons, Cardinals, 49ers, Cowboys, Buccanners and Saints before they visit Kansas City. Head coach Sean McVay and the roster will be navigating some choppy waters at this point in the season. I see the Chiefs coming away with a tight loss.
Result: Chiefs 8-3
Week 13 - Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
The Chiefs still have trouble solving the Cincinnati equation in my prediction. This is one I hope I'm wrong about, but Joe Burrow with a better offensive line is going to cause a lot of defenses problems in the league.
Result: Chiefs 8-4
Week 14 - Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
The Chiefs will want to stop their three game slide. A Sunday night match up for the Chiefs at this point in the season will have given the Chiefs plenty of tape on where the Broncos schemes are at under head coach Nathaniel Hackett and defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero.
The Broncos will be coming off a physical game against the Baltimore Ravens and the Chiefs will be looking to right their wrongs from Cincinnati. I also believe Russell Wilson will begin to show his physical decline as the season wears on.
Result: Chiefs 9-4
Week 15- Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
Head coach Lovie Smith and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton are both talented coaches, they just don't have an overall roster that can maintain the pace a Chiefs healthy offense can and a defense that will likely find their groove at this point in the season.
Result: Chiefs 10-4
Week 16- Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs
The Seahawks will be working with Geno Smith or Drew Lock at quarterback and it won't be enough against Kansas City.
Result: Chiefs 11-4
Week 17- Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
The NFL has a recent habit of pairing the Chiefs against the Broncos anywhere between four to six games apart since Mahomes took over the reigns on offense. The Broncos have yet to beat the Chiefs during the Mahomes era and I don't think the Denver roster is in a place to change that this season.
Result: Chiefs 12-4
Week 18- Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
The Chiefs close out the regular season in Vegas. The Raiders will have played 10 potential playoff caliber teams before reaching this point. They should have a good idea of their postseason fate at this point. I expect a good game from the Raiders because they are fighting for jobs in 2023, but the offensive line is hard to ignore.
Result: 13-4
AFC Playoff Standings
1. Kansas City (13-4)
2. Buffalo (12-5)
3. Baltimore (11-6)
4. Indianapolis (11-6)
5. LA Chargers (12-5)
6. Cincinnati (10-7)
7. New England (9-8)
NFC Playoff Standings
1. Green Bay (12-5)
2. Philadelphia (11-6)
3. Tampa Bay (11-6)
4. LA Rams (10-7)
5. New Orleans (10-7)
6. Minnesota (11-6)
7. Washington (9-8)
AFC Championship: Chiefs over Baltimore
NFC Championship: Packers over Eagles
Super Bowl LVII: Chiefs over Packers
Selfishly, I want to see Patrick Mahomes play Aaron Rodgers on the biggest stage possible. It might be wishful thinking but I'll keep dreaming. I don't care if I'm wrong in my predictions, I've just learned to never count out Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes.
Here are my previous predictions.
Nick Jacobs' 2021 season prediction
Nick Jacobs' 2020 season prediction
Nick Jacobs' 2019 season prediction
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