Good morning bloggers,
It has been 20 years since you named my hypothesis of the cycling pattern the LRC.
Back in 1987-1988 I firmed up something that I had stumbled across after Oklahoma City had two 1-foot snow storms weeks apart that winter. I noticed something amazing. The weather pattern was cycling and regularly.
It was not a coincidence that that weather pattern produced two epic snowstorms. Fast forward 15 years later, here I am at KSHB 41 and we started this blog and I began sharing with you some incredible weather predictions. A few of you named it the LRC.
In my hypothesis, a unique weather pattern sets up around the end of the first week of October. Well, here we are, and suddenly something massive appears to be happening.
This dry pattern needs something different to happen to it as we are on the verge of a serious drought. The pattern setting up now may still end up being dry, so let's not jump to conclusions on what this means yet, but look:
There is some energy that is forming in the Gulf of Alaska during the next three days. The models are now in agreement that this energy will dive south into a storm over the western United States.
Above you can see the American Model, or GFS model, and below the European model does something similar:
This is the 500-millibar level, or halfway up in the atmosphere by weight. The top of the atmosphere has a weight of 0 mb, and the surface has an average pressure of 1013.25 mb. So, 500 mb is close to halfway up in weight, or around 18,000 feet high.
We can see the LRC the best at this level.
What will this storm mean for Kansas City? Well, it will at least provide the conditions for a chance of rain and thunderstorms. There may be a risk or two of severe weather as well, so let's see how this evolves next week.
Be aware
Now, as incredible as it is that the new LRC is setting up, and we see this massive change, it could still be another dry pattern. We will learn a lot more in the next few weeks.
For now, we get to enjoy two more great fall days with highs near 80 degrees. A cold front will move through late Thursday afternoon or evening and "Friday Night In The Big Town" will be quite cool for the high school football games.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog.
Have a great day,
Gary
