Happy Thursday blog readers —
Last year was a record-warm year for the U.S., as the nation was hit by numerous tornadoes and devastating hurricanes, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
But often it is hard to understand how global changes are felt on the local level. So if we look at how 2024 in Kansas City unfolded here's the rundown — it was warm as well. In fact, the fourth warmest year in Kansas City's climate history.
It has been 25 years since we have recorded a below average year, meaning the global 21st century warming trend is showing up here in the heartland as well.
So as we take a look back at the weather pattern over 2024, here's where we really felt a climate influence.
My key focal points:
- February 2024 was off the charts warm in Kansas City
- Spring severe weather was abnormally active
- Fall is one of our fastest warming seasons
- Arctic air is invading Kansas City easier (yes climate change has cold weather impacts as well)
February 2024
Do you remember how spring-like last February was? Our average temperature was 10.5-degrees above normal and our average high temperature was 14.2-degrees above normal.
It was also very dry. This also matched up with global warmth; February 2024 wrapped up both hemispheres' warmest December-through-February period on record, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
But why does warming in the winter matter? Well, for many, warm winter may sound nice, but one study projects by 2050, the winter recreation industry could shrink up to 50%.
But you don't really ski in Kansas City? So again, why does this matter to us?
Simply put, milder winters can really mess things up. We can see more bugs like mosquitoes and ticks surviving, creating more pest problems. Plus, less snow means less water for our crops, and that can cause problems for farmers. Even fruit trees need a good winter rest to produce their best fruit, and warmer winters can throw that off.
And let's not forget about allergies — all that extra pollen in the air can make life miserable for people who already struggle with them.
But we are also dealing with increased arctic air outbreaks in Kansas City and across the Great Plains. So let's dive into how that could possibly negate some of these issues as well.
More Arctic air
By now, we are all tuned into listening for the words "polar vortex." While the polar vortex and the polar jet stream are technically different things, to keep it simple we are going to talk about the ability for cold air to ooze south out of the Arctic.
The polar vortex contains the north poles' extremely cold air within a band of winds. When this motion gets disrupted it allows that extreme arctic air out of the north pole and into mid-latitudes.
So the question is, 'Does warming up the planet slow this wind field, allowing for disruptions?' Aka, 'Could we see more Arctic outbreaks in KC's future?' Short answer: yes, but there is still a lot more science needed to understand this part of the puzzle.
We do know that the Arctic is one of the fastest warming areas across the globe and as we warm the Arctic, this slows the polar vortex. A slower polar vortex is more wiggly, and more wiggles simply mean more changes that extreme cold creeps into our forecast. So record snow in Louisiana and multiple Arctic outbreaks in Kansas City may not be quite so crazy down in the future.
Severe season
The Spring 2024 tornado season in the United States was exceptionally active, with 1,176 tornadoes confirmed by May 31. This surpasses the 90th percentile of historical activity for the March-May period, making it one of the most prolific seasons since 1950, second only to the devastating 2011 season.
Tragically, 36 fatalities and hundreds of injuries were reported, underscoring the severe impact of these powerful storms.
And we certainly felt that in Kansas City.
Some notable dates include:
- April 26-27: NWS KC recorded 12 tornadoes between Friday, Saturday severe storms
- April 30: NWS: Deadly Westmoreland, Kansas, tornado rated EF3
- May 19: NWS: 2 EF1 tornadoes struck parts of Johnson County Sunday night
While research points to more tornadic activity popping up in the south, I think it's important to remember that tornado alley isn't moving — it is expanding.
And while we tend to look at the big wedge style EF3-5+ deadly tornadoes during severe weather season, they are a very small minority.
Majority of tornadoes in the Kansas City Area are EF0 to EF1. This means major wind damage remains a big concern and a growing concern for us.
Fall warming
October was notably warm in Kansas City and very dry! We honestly moved through the end of summer and much of fall with very limited moisture. The key here is that when fall stays warm, the problems of summer linger. We face extended periods of heat, higher energy bills for cooling, and prolonged allergy seasons.
These impacts ripple through our lives, affecting our health, the environment and even our wallets.
According to the Oct. 29U.S. Drought Monitor report, about 54.1% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought — up about 22.6% from the beginning of October, the largest four-week drought expansion on record.
Summer into fall tends to be our dry season in Kansas City so being dry is not abnormal, but increased drought is.
Climate Considerations for Kansas City
So when it comes down to understanding a few local impacts of climate change, it does become more nuanced.
Global heat headlines and doomsday stories are easy to get caught up in, but I think it is important to meet people where they are at. I will also say there were a few flash flooding episodes that I haven't even taken into account for.
But overall, here is my summary of vulnerabilities that have pushed their way through in the last year:
- Increased potential for Arctic air pushes;
- Infrastructure, city planning, tree canopy communities are at risk for damaging wind events;
- Prolonged heat stress and drought for agricultural communities;
- Prolonged heat stress for fall activities;
- Allergy season is extending on both ends in an already high allergy area
The forecast
When it comes to local weather this week, we are seeing a warm and dry pattern emerging to close out January.
We have a weak but dry cold front this weekend that will keep the AFC Championship game near freezing but beyond that... get ready for a spring tease!
And of course don't forget to be kind to each other.
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