UPDATE, 11 p.m. | Hello, weather blog readers. Wes here with an update for our severe weather risk.
The first round of storms is moving through now, producing mainly hail south of Kansas City. Some quarter-size hail was reported in Bates and Henry counties.
A line of storms is beginning to move into NE Kansas and NW Missouri, setting up a flash flood threat overnight. Up to 3" of rainfall is possible there.
This is part of the second round coming through 3-8 a.m. This means the Wednesday morning commute may be very stormy. This is also the better chance of all types of severe weather, including tornadoes.
However, if the cold front helping to spark these storms can get ahead of the squall line, the severe threat will be lower, and tornadoes will no longer be a concern.
ORIGINAL STORY | The calendar has flipped to a new month, and our severe weather season is off to the races.
Today features a mostly cloudy sky, gusty winds from the southeast and temperatures recovering to the low 60s. While a few sprinkles can't be ruled out in northern Missouri this morning and western Missouri this afternoon along a warm front, most stay dry until late this evening/tonight.
The severe weather window opens up between 9 p.m. and 4 a.m. Wednesday.
All severe weather hazards are on the table with two different rounds expected in this time frame.
First Round:
Supercells will pop after 6 p.m. somewhere between central Oklahoma and central Kansas. These cells will move quickly northeast and approach our area, staying severe, between 9 p.m. and midnight.
Supercells are most likely to drop large hail and spawn a tornado. There is one ingredient, however, that could limit the severity of these storms as they move into our area — a lack of humidity/moisture.
Dew points could still be in the 50s, which would eat away at the tornado risk. However, many things will change and become clearer as we get closer to the event, so it will be very important to stay up to date on the latest radar trends!
Second Round:
A squall line forms along a cold front from north-central Kansas to southeastern Nebraska by 10 p.m. to midnight.
Depending on the speed of this front, our area could encounter extremely strong, damaging wind gusts of 60-75+mph winds along the line somewhere between 2 and 5 a.m.
As the squall line makes its way east, there's a chance the cold front "outruns" the line and weakens the severe threat. If that's the case, the storms will lose their punch and fall apart over western and central Missouri by 5-7 a.m.
Threat Level:
The 8 a.m. SPC update has now placed Kansas City and areas up to 36 Highway in the enhanced risk (orange, level 3/5) primarily for the increased potential of damaging wind gusts along a squall line of up to 75 mph.
How to Prepare:
Keep yourself posted on this evolving forecast. We will know more on how storms evolve once they "pop" and/or form into a line after 9 to 10 p.m.
Keep checking back with Wes, Jeff or me on social media, and plan on keeping your phone charged and on loud in case an alert or warning is issued so you can act quickly at night.
Your weather team will be here to keep you advised!
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