Good Thursday blog readers —
We have lost all that sticky humidity and are holding onto an absolutely beautiful weather pattern today and tomorrow.
Highs in the low 80s, mostly sunny skies and dare I say cool and crisp nights.
But heads up this weekend that "cooler" weather pattern comes with some rain chances.
Let's chat climate
There is a giant blue bubble over the center of the country for the next 6-10 days, and no, that doesn't mean Christmas or snow in July; it just means below-average temperatures are expected.
Climatologically, July 6 through Aug. 7 is the hottest time of the year here in Kansas City, where the average high temperature hangs at 89 degrees.
But right now, our heart of the summer forecast is favoring a high temperature trend in the upper 70s and low 80s.
So instead of feeling like July, we are actually feeling more like September.
When we assess climate trends, we usually use a 30-year average and mean average temperatures.
So, in order to compare this trend to others, we will move away from high temperatures and look at mean temperatures.
Our temperatures follow a basic bell curve — remember that from high school statistics?
And right now, we are at the peak.
The mean average temperature so far this month is 76.7 degrees compared to the normal 78.2 degrees, making July 2024's trend cooler than normal as is.
Currently, this July is sitting in 24th place for coolest ever in Kansas City history and we are about to add a string of well below average temperatures to that.
Here's a look at the coolest July's we have ever gone through.
And because I love looking at climate data, we aren't going to stop there.
Below average in the 80s seems reasonable, but temperature in the 70s in the month of July?!?! How normal is that?
I went back and pulled all the data for the last 30 years and calculated that in Kansas City we actually average 2.6 days in the 70s per July.
So the 2-3 days we are forecasting is actually kind of right on the money.
Cool snaps like this aren't all that crazy.
What is crazy is the coolest high temperature we ever lived through in July was 64 degrees.
That occurred on July 6, 1979, do you remember that Fourth of July holiday period?
So does having a cold snap in the middle of the hottest part of the year mean climate change isn't happening? Short answer, nope.
Climate vs. weather
Weather: Specific event that happens on a short time period (I.E. our cooler and rainy weekend).
Climate: Average weather conditions over 30 years or more (I.E. our July trend being cooler than the 30-year average).
Single weather events do not undermine the clear evidence that human-caused global warming is happening.
Our long-term observations show that high-temperature records are being broken more than cold records.
We will still have periods of cooler than normal weather, even in a warming world.
Those periods will just become shorter and less intense.
On average, Summer in Kansas City is getting warmer, while having a few days in the 70s in July is a nice treat, our bucket of warmer than normal temperatures tips the scale.
So, if you are itching for a fall feel — there are only 66 days until Fall begins!
And for my sun lovers, keep in mind, we still have the second half of Summer to enjoy!
