Happy Tuesday, blog readers —
I'm nerding out over how Helene's path could produce rain in Kansas City, and you should, too. This is a rare setup to see.
We will have an upper-level Great Plains low acting like a merry-go-round for tropical moisture by the end of the week. Let's get into it.
But first, we've been stuck in a cool, gray and showery pattern since fall started on Sunday. So as we track showers this afternoon, know this is the last batch of that for a bit.
Rain chances are fading, but an isolated thundershower remains possible between 6-9 p.m. for the metro. By 10 p.m., rain chances fall off, and skies will start to clear out overnight.
Then, get ready for a beautiful, mild yet crisp fall day for your hump day! Cue up the Mike, Mike, Mike, Mike, Mikes.
We get a treat of high pressure pulling in and giving us a two-day period of quiet and nice weather.
So now that I've gotten up to a quiet period, let's talk tropics.
Helene
Helene has formed. In the next 48 hours, Helene will undergo rapid intensification, becoming a major hurricane by landfall Thursday afternoon.
Here in the Great Plains, we are watching an upper-level low that will create a unique steering current. This low and hurricane Helene will be playing a game of UNO.
While I am not a Florida or Hurricane forecaster — I don't have any extra insight into the hand Helene will play — I am a solid Midwest forecaster and can tell you that this low will be tossing down a reverse card.
That means we will see weather move from east to west after Helene makes landfall.
It’s unusual for tropical moisture from a Florida hurricane to reach Kansas City, but Hurricane Helene’s path could bring some of that moisture our way.
This is a rare occurrence, as previous hurricanes — like Beryl and Francine — were pulled east before they could impact our area.
While Helene’s path may be similar to Debby’s, the two don't hold many similarities beyond that.
Debby was a weaker system that made a second landfall in South Carolina before heading up the eastern seaboard. Helene will be a much more aggressive storm and will bend back toward the Mississippi River.
Our upper-level low will pull the path of moisture through Atlanta toward Nashville and into Missouri and Illinois.
Rain totals over the weekend through Tennessee could hit upwards of 5-7", but for Missouri, those totals will be in the 2-4" range, favoring areas from Springfield to St. Louis.
There's a small chance that some of Hurricane Helene's moisture could reach the Ozarks and areas south of I-70 on Friday afternoon and evening.
This is a rare situation, so don't get too excited about heavy rain, but there's a possibility of some light showers in Kansas City.
Helene's remnants are heading toward the Great Lakes on Saturday.
This could refuel the system, but it's more likely to be moving east by then, which means we're most likely not going to be expecting rain in Kansas City over the weekend from Helene.
Our best chance to squeeze out any rain from this rare event will be Friday night.
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