KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good morning weather blog readers!
Some confidence is growing on our severe weather potential the next two days. This is all due to a large storm system pushing over the Rocky Mountain range today.
TODAY:
A warm front will lift north through the area this afternoon. Check out where it is now (9 a.m.)!
Dew points will jump to the 60s this afternoon in Kansas City and points northward! This is a critical parameter when forecasting severe weather - the more moisture & higher humidity, the more fuel for storms.
There's a chance storms could develop along the warm front, north of Kansas City this evening. Hail and strong winds are possible. Here's an example of what radar could look like at 10 p.m.
TONIGHT:
Rain & low-end severe storms linger nearby. We will need to monitor the thunderstorm development out west over Nebraska & Kansas. These will form into a line and head our way by sunrise Tuesday.
TUESDAY:
The morning commute will quickly turn stormy as a line of strong to possibly severe weather approaches. Storms move swiftly through the region between 7 a.m. to noon. Heavy rain, small hail & strong winds are the most likely hazards at this time.
Now, here comes the forecast challenge...the strength of the morning storms will directly impact the severity of any afternoon thunderstorms.
We will have to see if there's enough time for the atmosphere to recover or recharge in the afternoon to allow for the second round of severe storms. If so, the threat will be focused east of KC over north central Missouri and Iowa, closer to the low pressure center. Here are a few scenarios to watch tomorrow.
If anything, the activity will dwindle after 8 or 9 p.m. and much drier air surges in for the middle of the week.
We'll keep you advised on this evolving forecast & severe potential!
For now, enjoy the warm temperatures...the 50s are back on Friday.
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