KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good Wednesday blog readers-
Our warm weather trend comes with the curve ball for severe weather concerns again tonight. Severe weather concerns for the month of March through the plains are fairly rare, for March 13th the severe weather probability sits at around a 1% chance for the KC area. But it doesn't feel like March 13th, 75° is the climate average for May 15th in Kansas City. And May is peak severe weather season for Kansas and Missouri.
TIMING
- 5-7 pm: Storms begin to initialize around the I-70 corridor
- 7-10 pm: Severe weather threats likely as storms begin to lift north toward St. Joe and Chillicothe
- Around midnight: Storms continue to produce heavy rain and flooding concerns possible for those north of Kansas City
- Early Thursday: Cold front reignites moisture pool with a quick window for severe weather well east of Kansas City
STORM IMPACTS
- Large hail, ping pong ball size not out of the question.
- Large hail means rotating thunderstorms... and while we are on the warm front and storms usually remain higher up in the atmosphere and therefor have to work harder to spin up a tornado to reach the ground... we can't rule out a quick spin up with some storms to prompt tornado warnings tonight.
- Flooding concerns are possible for those north of Kansas City as storms will continue to fire overnight. The atmosphere around the warm front will remain saturated and allow storms to continue but they may drop below the severe threshold for a bit by 12 am through 2-4 am. As the cold front moves in by the early morning storms could get a bit of a boost east near Marshall and Chillicothe to spin up a quick severe risk for the early morning hours.
HAIL
Big hail concerns are focused for areas shaded in purple on the map below this evening. As we watch for some cold front action to spark more storms tomorrow morning big hail is not out of the question for a sliver of the viewing area, mainly east.
TORNADO
Most storms should remain elevated, that means the storm base will be igniting at an altitude in the atmosphere that favors hail over tornadoes. But whenever we see storms with this kind of potential we can't rule out 1 or 2 tornadoes. What to expect here is that any storm that is warned severely will be monitored closely for tightening rotation and we could see a tornado warning issued as well. Make sure you have a way to receive weather alerts. Our tornado probability tonight is at 5%, which means there is a 5% chance of a tornado occurring within a 25 mile radius. Tomorrow morning as the cold front recharges storms another round of active weather is possible for central Missouri between 2am and 11 am. Expect these storms to race east fast with a bigger severe weather concern well southeast of us.
FLOODING
As storms fire and lift north tonight the pool of warm moist air will remain and allow storms to bring heavy rain and flooding concerns. Watching for a couple of inches of rain to quickly accumulate north of the River.
