Happy Friday Eve blog readers —
Friday is almost here, and so are some storm chances, so I'm going to keep today's blog short and simple — all about storms over the next 48 hours!
Tonight
As we head through the evening we should see the warm front start to impact Kansas City — can you feel it already?
The heat and humidity sure crept back in this afternoon!
Good news tonight is that majority of the severe weather tonight will remain in the northern Great Plains with focus on the Dakotas.
But some storms through north central Kansas will make their way into our area.
- Timing - We could see some storms arriving before 10 p.m., but those will stay mainly well north and remain isolated. Scattered showers are more likely closer to midnight, with the heaviest rain looking likely between 3 to7 a.m.
- Severity - We aren't expecting a lot of severe weather overnight as storms should be weakening. As thunderstorms collapse though, they tend to put out some gusty winds so some storms could be capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts. Otherwise mainly expect noisy storms and burst of heavy rain.
Friday
Expect scattered showers and storms to persist for your Friday morning commute. The rain could stick around until just about lunchtime for many, especially on the Missouri side.
The key to Friday nights severe weather will be:
1. how fast to we clear out?
2. how much can sun do we get ahead of the cold front?
3. how much moisture is left to play with?
Right now, models are pretty consistent with leaning toward a midday to afternoon dry period, but they arn't so sure on how much moisture the front will be able to pull together.
Friday Night
Friday night the cold front will approach Kansas City and our severe weather risk will go up to a level 2 our of 5.
Again, the main concern here is wind gusts and we could see gusts between 70-80 mph with any storms that form.
While we hold onto some uncertainty on how well storms will string together, we can't fully rule out one or two super cell storms from forming Friday early evening.
This is why our tornado threat is low but not a complete no.
Friday night will be an evolving storm set up and right now models are fairly confused as to what ingredients will be left, so make sure to check in tomorrow for an update.
But know that while confidence is lower for Friday night storms, all risks are on the table right now.
Weekend
As the cold front moves through Kansas City Friday night it looks to linger a bit and stall out Saturday.
The key here will be how far south does it get before it stalls out?
Right now, models are indicating the front will keep rain around for the beginning of Saturday morning before stalling out south near Springfield.
But rainy weather will persist just to our south all weekend.
As long as this trend holds we are in for an AMAZING weekend with highs in the mid to low 80s, passing clouds and minimal humidity impact.
So as that front moves through by Saturday morning, everyone turn your fans on and point them south lol!
—
