Here we go blog readers-
The rain has arrived and we are tracking rain and thunder to persist for much of your morning and midday. Friday severe weather concerns enter the forecast and then look to persist through Sunday. So let's talk some timing and risks.
Thursday
Rain has moved in and will intensify through the midday. Some thunderstorms are possible but they should stay below the severe threshold. That being said pea-size hail and thunder and lightning are all possible with gusty winds.
It does look like the Royals will be dealing with a rain delay for their game today. Here's a snapshot of the 1-2 p.m. projected radar. I do see a window around 4 p.m. where thundershowers should be tapering off with a fairly quiet, but drizzly, dreary Thursday evening.
Friday Morning (2 a.m.-10 a.m.)
Overnight into Friday morning a low will eject from the Rockies and provide some organization to our storms. With that a warm front will start to lift through the metro. This will bring elevated thunderstorms into the regions, meaning a hail risk will be there. Low-end severe impacts are possible Friday morning, including large hail and strong winds. The baseline wind Friday will overall be concerning with non-thunderstorm wind gusts near 40-50 mph possible.
Here is a look at what one model is putting out for that busy 6 am morning commute hour. Plan for some storm impacts for the morning rush hour.
Friday Afternoon-Evening (3 p.m.- 8 p.m.)
This second window of storms will be highly conditional on how the morning goes. But it is also packed with a bigger potential for severe weather IF storms do form. This is because storms will no longer be elevated and as they rotate the concern for tornadoes increases as storms don't have to work as hard to connect to the surface.
Here is a look at what our powercast is looking for Friday night. You'll notice much more isolated storms but that is not always a good thing. This could create a supercell environment with rapid storm development.
When it comes to impacts Friday night, remember storm activity will be highly dependent on how the atmosphere recovers through the midday. But if it does recover the concern for 2" hailstones and strong tornadoes are possible. The SPC has placed Kansas City in a significant tornado hatch, meaning IF we see storms become tornadic, strong EF2 or greater tornadoes will be possible.
Time to make sure you have your weather alerts turned on and are staying up to date with the forecast.
Saturday & Sunday
There is a second low that will eject from the Rockies Saturday morning. The dryline aka tornadic concern with this system is setting up into Oklahoma and areas south right now. But this low looks like it could create a concern north near the low and then south near the dry line. We live north near the low on this set up, and weird things can happen under a low. This means all risks are on the table Saturday night. BUT your Saturday shouldn't be a complete wash, it will be warm and humid for much of the day. Overall we should have a bit of a break for much of the day Saturday with a more afternoon convection like set up for Kansas City.
The new added concern with with Saturdays storm activity is as we head into the night rain and thunder could persist and be more widespread which adds flooding concerns into the mix. By Sunday where the storms re-fire is up in the air. Yesterday models were thinking closer to St. Louis... today they are thinking closer to Kansas City. So keep in mind Sunday storms will be dependent on where we move the front with storms Saturday overnight. Nonetheless we continue to hold onto severe weather concerns Sunday but storms will be tracking east quickly.
