Happy Tuesday, blog readers —
Tomorrow is an extremely rare setup to see for this time of year across the Great Plains.
Typically, the KC area sees two to five level 3 risk days in a given calendar year, climatologically speaking. Keep in mind, these favor the warm months.
But this year, October is behaving like a warm month.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the Kansas City area in a level 3 out of 5 risk, or enhanced risk, for severe weather Wednesday.
This is our ninth enhanced risk of the 2024 season and comes with a "significant tornado" tagline.
This means there is a higher chance for large and destructive tornadoes *if* the right storm gets going, but not necessarily that we will see one.
With the warm pattern we've held onto this month, the ability for our atmosphere to be "reactive" is being preserved.
Normally, we have an extremely low risk for tornado development at this time of year.
But we are seeing Douglas, Jefferson, Doniphan, Leavenworth and Atchison counties included in a risk for large and damaging tornadoes.
The good news is this window will be short-lived and hold onto lower confidence overall. The not-so-great news is as we continue to see climate change add heat to the fall season, we are seeing an uptick in these rare fall events.
In fact, it wasn't too long ago we had a big severe weather day in the middle of December, the 12-15-2021 derecho.
So warming up our cooler months is certainly troublesome here in the Great Plains.
We have seen this significant tornado hatch three times in 2024 — May 6 and April 26-27.
While we did not see any tornadoes reported in the KC area on May 6, we were certainly busy April 26-27.
Tornadoes from this weekend have been surveyed and our count is now at 11 total. The strongest one reported was in Ballard, MO and rated as an EF-1. It was on the ground for 10.64 miles. https://t.co/61VpeKfp6c pic.twitter.com/Yd8j26Zd6E
— ☀️ Cassie Wilson (@CassieKSHB) April 30, 2024
But this year has been remarkably active.
Previously, it hadn't been active until the Linwood tornado (5/28/19) when there was a significant tornado hatch issued for our area.
All this being said, I do believe some of this hatch is being driven by the fact this is not a normal time of year to be planning for tornado activity.
When it comes to the main impacts the KC area will see, our weather team is focusing more on wind and hail concerns.
So let's talk timeline!
Wednesday 2-6 p.m.
Through the afternoon, a few isolated showers and storms will be possible. This is where we will be focusing on rotating thunderstorm concerns.
Remember, hail forms when thunderstorms begin to rotate as well.
These storms will be rather elevated, which means the base of the storm will be pretty high up in the sky and need to work really hard to rotate enough to produce a wall cloud.
Nonetheless, this is our window to watch for any kind of tornado activity.
Here is a look at what radar could look like by 4 p.m.
By 6 p.m., this system shows signs of becoming linear very quickly.
This means isolated cells will join together and the cold front will begin to work its way through the area as a line of strong to severe thunderstorms.
This is when more widespread action will be possible and heavy soaking rains will start to eye the metro.
Wednesday 6-10 p.m.
This is our window for the main metro area impact, and by this point in time, we should be expiring any EF2-5 tornado risks very quickly.
When it comes to a line of storms, we mainly watch for damaging wind gusts hanging around 56-70 mph.
There is always a risk for a quick clip in the line to produce stronger winds, but I am not convinced this line will pose a widespread mesovortices risk.
You know how it goes when wind storms hit the metro core. Be prepared for wind damage to roofs, fences and tree limbs.
Here is a look at how radar could look by 9 p.m.
Wednesday 10 p.m. to 2 a.m.
After 10 p.m., this line of storms will move east quickly as it will be a mature QLCS.
This means we will still be watching for damaging wind gusts in our eastern counties through the middle of the night.
Summary
- Low confidence in supercell severe thunderstorms between 2-6 p.m. But if they do so happen to fire, they could hold the risk of producing large hail and one or two significant tornadoes.
- Higher confidence in linear storms and wind damage concerns between 6 p.m. and 2 a.m.
- Keep in mind, we could pick up 1-2 inches of soaking rain with this storm system as well.
—
