Happy Thursday blog readers -
There's a chance of isolated large hail and strong wind gusts in eastern Kansas and northern Missouri after 7 p.m. Next week, a more potent storm system looks to bring strong to severe storms through the Great Plains ahead of Halloween. Between these two storm chances, we could bring our record-dry October back near normal easily. But let's focus on the severe weather risk first.
Tonight 7 p.m. - midnight
A low-pressure system moving through the central Plains is expected to produce strong thunderstorms in eastern Kansas, northern Missouri, and parts of Iowa this evening. These storms could bring isolated large hail (quarter to ping pong ball size) and damaging wind gusts (around 50-60 mph).
We could see a few showers ahead of the front, but these should not hold a severe weather concern. The cold front looks to kick off by 7-8 p.m. along a Maryville to Manhattan line. Here is a peek at how this event could initialize.
The window for the immediate Kansas City area impact looks to be around 10 p.m., but the stronger storms look to hang through north central Missouri overall.
By midnight, the front should be moving into central Missouri and as we head into Friday we are expecting to wake up to sunny skies and cooler air. Temperatures will fall back into the 60s on Friday and into Saturday. But by Sunday, high pressure moves from north of us to east of us and allows a south wind to kick off a warming trend.
This wind may get a little bit much some Monday into Tuesday with some gusts near 45 mph possible. This much south wind will fuel a temperature trend back into the 80s and set the stage for another chance to see severe weather in the Great Plains.
Oct. 30-31
Confidence is increasing that we could see strong to severe storms as we approach Halloween. The timing is starting to come together better to be during a window from Wednesday, Oct. 30 in the afternoon to evening through Thursday, Oct. 31 through midday.
This means we may be dry in time for Trick-or-Treating, fingers crossed. As we look ahead at the preview of what to expect on Halloween, it could be rainy or stormy to start the day but cool, cloudy and dry for all the kiddos to be out and about.
But wait, there's more. As we turn the page into November, the storm lineup doesn't look to end. This Halloween-Eve storm could kick off a chain reaction and keep us unsettled into the early part of November.
So when it comes to severe storms in October, what is normal?
As autumn arrives and temperatures drop, we do see a small increased risk of severe weather and tornadoes across the United States. The change from summer to fall marks the beginning of a second severe weather season in the U.S. In Kansas City our fall peak for severe weather is usually during September.
Fall storms are typically less severe than spring storms due to lower temperatures and less humidity.
Key differences:
- Less heat and moisture: Cooler temperatures and less evaporation in fall mean less fuel for storms.
- Smaller temperature contrast: The difference between ground and upper-level temperatures is smaller in fall, limiting thunderstorm development.
- Jet stream dynamics: Fall jet stream patterns might not be as favorable for strong storms as in spring.
While fall storms are generally less severe, they can still pose a risk. Stay informed about weather forecasts and be prepared as we move through tonight's forecast and through next week.
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