Good Sunday, bloggers,
We are turning our attention away from the Canadian wildfire smoke and to a storm in the southwest U.S. that will bring rain and thunderstorms to our area Tuesday.
We do need rain. Rainfall across the area was mostly below average for May.
Since it is June 1, it is also May statistics day.
KCI, which is the official reporting station for Kansas City, saw rainfall almost 2" below average. Temperatures finished 1° below average.
We are also getting close to the latest of not seeing an official 90° high temperature.
Even the unofficial reporting stations had below-average rainfall. Lee's Summit to locations east were really dry, along with far northwest and northeast Missouri.
The wettest locations were Emporia, Kansas, to Clinton, Missouri, and south. This was the northern edge of way too much rain across Oklahoma, Arkansas into southeast Kansas, and southern Missouri, where 10"-20" of rain fell in May.
May and June are, on average, the wettest months of the year. We average 10"-11" of rain in those months.
If we want to catch up on rainfall, we have a long way to go.
So, will the Tuesday rain and thunderstorm event help out all locations, especially the driest areas?
Let's go through this.
Monday will be a dry and very warm day as the Canadian wildfire smoke exits. This is due to a storm system tracking in from the southwest. Our flow is no longer from Canada.
We are in a level 1/2 out of 5 risk of severe weather for Tuesday. Wind and hail are the main threats.
MONDAY (4 PM):
Thunderstorms will be forming from west Texas to Nebraska Monday afternoon as we see the storm system come from the southwest and a cold front come in from the northwest.
We will have great pool weather with highs getting close to 90° and the smoky haze exiting.
MONDAY 4 PM-TUESDAY 2 AM:
The rain and thunderstorms will make their way to eastern Kansas, bringing some strong winds and heavy rain. However, they will be in a weakening phase as they approach.
TUESDAY 2 AM-NOON:
We will see periods of rain and thunderstorms as the front approaches. The more rain there is ahead of the front Tuesday morning, the less chance we have to see severe weather, as temperatures will be held down to the 70s.
If there is less rain and some sun, and we rise to the low 80s, then our severe weather threat jumps up. We lean with the rainier, cooler setup. Even this setup could bring some high winds and hail.
Remember May 19? We had clouds and rain all day, it was cool, and we still saw damaging winds. However, the setup for Tuesday is not quite as intense.
TUESDAY 2-4 PM:
It looks like the front will slip through while we are seeing rain and thunderstorms. This will end the severe threat for us, pushing it east where it is in the 70s and 80s.
We could drop to the 50s and 60s by Tuesday evening. Any thunderstorms behind the front will not be severe but could produce small hail.
TUESDAY 4 PM-MIDNIGHT:
The rain and thunderstorms will gradually end as temperatures drop to the low 50s.
RAINFALL FORECAST:
1"-2" of rain is likely at most locations. There will be some spots that see under 1". Right now, that could be from Lee's Summit and east or nearby.
There will likely be a stripe where 2"-4" of rain occurs. This data has it near I-35, similar to May 19. But it depends on how the thunderstorms line up.
Flash flooding may end up being the main threat if most of the rain forecast falls in 1-2 hours. Flash flooding kills more people per year than tornadoes and lightning combined. 6" of flowing water can float an SUV.
"TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN."
If your yard or farm does not receive the rain you need, there are 2-3 more chances between Thursday and next weekend.
Have a great week ahead.
Stay healthy.
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