Good Tuesday, blog readers —
Strong to severe storms are loading as we head into the evening here in Kansas City.
Tonight and Saturday night are the only days with clear stormy signals right now, so beyond that, the 10-day is starting to look like summer!
Tonight (7 p.m. to 2 a.m.)
There is a long trailing front dropping through the Great Plains.
The energy core with this system is well into Canada and overall doesn't have a lot left to it. But it has enough, and the Gulf moisture that is making us feel swampy will allow for storms to fire tonight.
This setup should stay low-end severe for many across the Plains tonight.
For us in Kansas City, we are in a level 2 risk, mainly focusing on a wind threat.
We are expecting a line, or broken line of storms, to approach from the northwest after 7 p.m.
The threat for gusty and damaging winds, outflow winds and winds from collapsing storms are really what is driving out severe wind threats tonight.
We could see some quarter-size hail initially with storms, but the hail threat does look to fall off quickly after sunset.
When we talk about our surrounding metro counties, the timing looks to be around 10 p.m. to midnight.
Keep in mind, with this line being broken, some of us may get skipped while others see heavy rain and strong winds.
Once we get to about 2 a.m., the storms should be heading off to the Ozarks. Then, get ready for a quiet summer-like trend.
I know it's been a stormy spring, but this setup is different.
We are starting to trend away from storms that produce big hail and tornadoes and are shifting into mainly wind threats with our storms.
The climate trend for Kansas City-area severe storms shows the peak for wind damage occurs through the month of June, and we have learned the wind this season has been knocking a lot of things down.
So be mindful of severe thunderstorm warnings tonight and what winds have been gusting at.
Wednesday-Friday
Speaking of June, we have officially kicked off Meteorological Summer, and it sure does feel like it.
There is a heat home, or ridge of high pressure, that is expected to strengthen over the desert southwest this week.
Temperatures in the 90s-100s are expected for much of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California, Nevada and even foothill areas around the Rockies.
KC will remain right on the edge of this heat dome, bringing us just slightly above average and into a summer stretch of 80s.
As we wobble around the edge of this ridge of high pressure, we may see some change in our wind flow.
If we tap into a northwest flow, we could cool into the low 80s on Thursday, but otherwise, we are looking pretty stable for the rest of the week.
The next chance for storms arrives Saturday evening, as this ridge of high pressure wobbles into just the right spot to allow that northwest flow to kick up a ripple off the Rockies.
This could bring a quick surface-based system into our forecast Saturday night.
But beyond storm chances on Tuesday and Saturday, the rest of the 10-day is looking quiet and summer-like!
Through the month of June, our temperature trend goes from an average of 81° to 87°, but we are looking to hit that range here in the first week.
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