Happy Thursday blog readers —
Since our weather pattern has been quiet, today's blog will move outside of the atmosphere.
We are going to head out to space with the latest astronomical sights, but also down into the ocean as we talk about the La Niña watch that has been issued.
Look Up: Space
Tonight our October full moon will be rising at 6:40 p.m. as a super moon.
Of the four super moons this year, the one rising tonight will be the boldest by a small margin.
This just means it will be in the closest point of its orbit of any full moon of the year, allowing it to appear brighter and larger.
Have you noticed how ginormous the moon is? Our supermoon tour continues as the October full moon is set to rise tomorrow, but honestly it already looks so pretty and will appear to look full tonight through Friday!
— ☀️ Cassie Wilson (@CassieKSHB) October 16, 2024
Don't forget to send us any great photos: pics@kshb.com @KSHB41 pic.twitter.com/QUKT9TFZc5
While we are on the subject of the moon, did you know there is a second moon orbiting the Earth right now? Well kind of. The Earth has technically grabbed a tiny piece of space rock, aka a small asteroid, and is holding it in its orbit until Nov. 25.
If you have a stargazing app you should be able to find it and view it with a telescope.
Our last celestial heads up is in regards to the weekend when the Orionid Meteor shower will be peaking— Oct. 20-21 looks to be peak activity to see a "shooting star."
The full moon will be dimming, the skies should remain clear and the temperatures will be warm enough to endure the wait of a meteor shower.
Look Down: Ocean
The Climate Prediction Center has issued a "La Nina watch" as the ocean is showing signs of cooling down a bit near the equator.
There is a 60% chance La Niña will form as the predominate climate pattern to influence the winter season, but what the heck does this mean?
Well first, if it does form, it will be weak, and second, ENSO events are strongest in the winter, so if we don't cool enough to get that signature going, there may not be much influence.
The stronger the signature, the more the atmosphere will join in on mimicking the circulation to create consistent impacts on temperature and precipitation.
So we might only be dealing with a gentle nudge this winter when it comes to this climate pattern.
During a La Niña winter, the polar jet dips lower bringing colder air into the northern Great Plains and more wet weather into the Pacific northwest.
The last time we saw a weak La Nina in Kansas City during the winter months was the infamous "triple dip" La Niña, of 2021, 2022 and 2023.
So let's take a quick jog back to see how those winters shook out for us.
2021
- ENSO: -1.0
- Total Snow: 11.1 inches (-3.7 inches)
- Avg Temp: 31.3 degrees (-0.3 degrees)
2022
- ENSO: -1.0
- Total Snow: 15.4 inches (+0.6 inches)
- Avg Temp: 34.8 degrees (+2.9 degrees)
2023
- ENSO: -0.7
- Total Snow: 8.3 inches (-6.5 inches)
- Avg Temp: 35.6 degrees (+3.7 degrees)
So you can see, having a weak La Niña may trend cool one year, but warmer the next two, as well as snowier one year and drier the other two, meaning there is a lot more to the puzzle!
La Niña is a long-term weather pattern that can affect the weather across the United States. Short-term weather patterns like the AO and NAO can also influence the weather pattern.
When these patterns line up, we might see more snowstorms. But if the conditions are different, we might see more rain instead.
For example, if we have a La Niña and a negative AO and NAO, we get a cold air push into the U.S.
But La Niña with positive AO and NAO helps fuel warmer and wetter storms. This is just a couple of hundreds of combinations and why winter weather forecasting is so complicated across the US, but also so fun!
In the Middle
As we wait for a pattern change in the atmosphere, there are clues here we need to watch for as we head into the colder months as well.
We haven't broken away from summer or this dry pattern yet. Monday into Tuesday still looks like our best chance to break into a new pattern.
After this system moves through, there is a small chance to see some back side moisture wrap in off the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday.
Then my eyes are on a low pressure core that is trying to move onto the west coast the weekend before Halloween. This will be a system to watch as it could set the stage for a Halloween wet/cool window.
So stuff here in the middle is ready to pivot, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the second half of October's forecast.
So as you look ahead to Halloween, don't panic yet. Here are a few stats to help you plan ahead though — the average temperature for Oct. 31 is 61degrees and we see trace rain about 1/3 of the time.
So when it comes to looking up, looking down, looking all around — we are certainly seeing some cool things.
A few of the winter puzzle pieces are coming to light, but there is certainly a lot more to be on the look out for so stay tuned.
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