Good Friday bloggers,
We are still in an active weather pattern, but it will take a break today and Saturday. A significant severe weather event is possible in our area Monday-Tuesday. Let's go through this.
TODAY:
A weak cold front will drift through this morning with a few showers and thunderstorms as the pattern is disorganized. This afternoon we will see lots of clouds with a northwest breeze at 10-20 mph.
There is a small area of rain and thunderstorms around Salina, KS. It is drifting southeast and weakening. As it does it will create scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in our area, especially southwest of KC.
There are disturbances in southwest Kansas, northeast Iowa and eastern Missouri. It is quite disorganized.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON:
The chance of rain drops to near zero, but we will see lots of clouds. I have clouds turned off on this graphic, but they are there. We will see peeks of sun too. Highs will be in the mid 60s with a northwest breeze at 10-20 mph.
SATURDAY:
Areas of showers and thunderstorms will be occurring across Oklahoma, southwest and west Kansas to western Nebraska. They will stay out there Saturday leaving us with a nice day of weather. Highs will be around 65° with a northeast breeze at 5-15 mph under a mix of sun and clouds.
SUNDAY:
The chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms (mainly morning) increase as a warm front moves through. A few thunderstorms may contain small hail, but we do not expect severe weather with this event. But, it is a set up for severe weather Monday-Tuesday as behind the warm front is a very juicy airmass.
The high Sunday afternoon will be around 70° as the warm front moves through. Again, most scattered showers and thunderstorms will be during the morning. You will notice a major increase in the humidity as southeast to south winds increase to 10-20 mph.
MONDAY:
It will be windy, very warm and humid as we track a triple point tracking across southeast South Dakota. The triple point is where a cold front, warm front and dry line meet. This is a severe weather setup any time of year, especially in the middle of the USA during April, May and June.
The part of the set up that has our attention is the dry line. This separates warm and humid air from very warm to hot and dry air.
On this data at 3 PM all is quiet as we climb to the low 80s along with high humidity and south winds gusting to 30-40 mph. The upper level flow is very supportive of supercells as it zips in from the southwest over the surface south winds. This creates shear which means if thunderstorms form, they can spin, which means it opens the door to tornadoes.
Look at what happens between 3 PM and 10 PM. Thunderstorms explode and they are individual cells. This means they are more like a line of supercells as opposed to a solid line of thunderstorms. This is a troubling set up as it stands now. We know things can change up to the last minute. But, keep this one in mind as it has potential to be a significant event.
We are already near the middle of a level 3 of 5 risk for Monday-Monday night.
TUESDAY:
The severe weather threat shifts southeast as the cold front catches up to the dry line.
Stay with KSHB 41 and we'll keep you advised on the situation early next week.
Have a great weekend
Stay healthy
