KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The last 72 hours in the weather prediction world have been a fine opportunity to exercise the art of forecasting. Often, predicting the weather comes down to managing the fine art of balancing people's wants, needs and expectations.
Forecasting snow is particularly challenging, especially in the heartland of the U.S., Kansas City. That difficulty is compounded by navigating people rooting for or against snow, a need to know for logistical reasons and providing the most precise information in real-time.
Predicting snow is similar to predicting rain with one big exception. When we predict snow, it is expected to try to predict exact amounts.
Let's look at a spring storm coming our way with a chance of rain. I often will predict a 100% chance of rain, and then we say it will rain somewhere between 1/2" and possibly 3" of rain if you get into the heaviest thunderstorms.
When the storm arrives and it rains 1/2", then there is a perception of accuracy. We predicted a 100% chance of rain and it rained. We were right! If it doesn't rain, then we would be wrong.
So, now let's say we predict a 100% chance of snow and say that 5" of snow may fall and possibly up to 12" of snow will fall in the heaviest bands. And, then it snows. The 100% chance of snow is verified.
When it comes to snow, there is another level of precision required from just about everyone. How much will fall? If 5" falls, and the highest amount was 8", then everyone may say, "Where is the foot of snow?" and think we can't forecast the weather.
My point: predicting exact amounts of rain or snow for every location is practically impossible, but we try very hard.
Now, with that said, we are pretty good at doing that impossible task. And, this latest example is another reason why trusting your favorite local source, hopefully KSHB 41, will provide you with more confidence in weather forecasting.
When I was a kid, I watched my favorite station and only my favorite station. The Late Dr. George Fishbeck was my favorite meteorologist growing up in Los Angeles. I did not even watch the competition, and why would I, as I didn't think they were accurate.
So, if you do decide to compare our weather forecasts to other forecasts, do so at your own risk. I recommend doing what I did as a kid, stick to the one source you should trust.
This is when it comes to the forecast, of course! We do team up with the National Weather Service when it comes to life and death tornado and severe thunderstorm risks.
Let's look at our forecast we had out two days ago for this storm:
Other forecasts and models from those other sources, your favorite weather app and the National Weather Service had higher predictions of snow totals for Kansas City.
At KSHB 41, our weather team stayed consistent and tweaked up and down just a bit, but what you see in this prediction above is about what we had for the entire storm.
Here is what the snow estimates are as of 11:25 a.m. Wednesday morning:
There are reports coming in with nearly 5" in Overland Park and a few other spots had an inch or so more or less than these estimates from our computer.
There has been a lot of criticism on social media of all of the forecasts, and also of our forecast, as quite often we get lumped into the others.
We had the lowest snowfall forecast of anyone else out there. Why did we go lower? Was it because we were just being cautious? As many of you know, I love snow and have a passion for predicting it and being accurate.
If it looks like it will be more, much more, I will be the first one to let you know. This season has left Kansas City in a spot where these storm systems struggle to produce snow.
I saw the 20" snow predictions some of the models were predicting five days ago. Then, we analyzed the storm system. It was closer than you may imagine to producing a big snowstorm in KC.
This storm is still approaching us now. This storm is just not quite set up to bring us the major snowfall, but it is set up for areas east of us extending into Illinois and Michigan.
But, we don't live there. We live here in the heartland!
So, we threaded the weather needle and actually made the accurate forecast. Our weather team will never "hype" it up. We will tell you what we believe will happen every time, whether it is tomorrow's forecast high temperature, a snowfall prediction or a severe weather risk.
We will bring you accuracy with passion — I will get excited as I have been interested in weather since the age of five. My excitement is just showing my passion.
There is a chance of a band of snow tonight, and Kansas City is again on the northern edge. It poses some new challenges, and we will take this on. We hope you watch tonight.
Gary Lezak
