KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good morning bloggers,
Summer is now just 11 days away! It has been 244 days since Kansas City last reached 90 degrees, but we may do it today. The last 90-degree day was on October 7, 2020.
Let's begin today's discussion with the isolated thunderstorm, or actually heavy downpour, that went right over the airport Tuesday:
A cumulonimbus cloud developed and intensified right over KCI Airport. This heavy downpour, with no lightning detected, produced 0.78 inches of rain in around 30 minutes or less.
Meanwhile, 99% of the Kansas City area either had just a few raindrops or nothing at all, but KCI had a deluge. This was what we call an "isolated thunderstorm," or in this case, an isolated downpour.
The weather pattern is rather fascinating as summer approaches. Summer officially begins June 20, or 11 days from now. (Don't forget your dad as that is also Father's Day).
The flow aloft, around 18,000 feet above us, shows the storm systems and the weather pattern quite well. These next two maps show the flow at 500 mb, or half way up in the atmosphere in weight.
The H shows the anticyclone, which is the exact opposite of a cyclone. A cyclone is any low pressure area. An anticyclone is a high pressure area, or at the 500-mb level we call it a high "height" area, as the 500-mb pressure is at a higher level, but still close to 18,000 feet up.
This map above shows the upper-level high over northern Mexico. We will be monitoring these features as we move through summer.
These upper-level high height areas often produce heat waves. If this one were to build over Kansas and Missouri, we would see a surge towards 100 degrees.
By Friday, as shown below, the upper level high is barely budging. Flow around and over the top of this ridge is creating conditions favorable for a complex of thunderstorms to develop over Nebraska and South Dakota by Friday morning and possibly turn our way.
The European Model is the most aggressive model with this developing complex of thunderstorms. Take a look at last night's model run:
This map above shows a complex of thunderstorms tracking into northwest Missouri by around 1 p.m. on Friday. The complex of thunderstorms is forecast by this European Model to track down the state line with the strongest thunderstorms just west of Kansas City:
A few of the other models have weaker versions of this prediction of a complex of thunderstorms. We will discuss and go in-depth on 41 Action News today and tonight.
KC Weather Time-Line:
- For today, expect a hot and humid day. We have not reached 90 degrees officially in 244 days since October 7, 2020. Let's see how high it goes;
- We are forecasting a high of 90°. If it falls just short today, tomorrow there is an even better chance as we are forecasting a high of 92° on Thursday;
- Then, there is a 40% chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon with a surge into the lower 90s ahead of this chance of strong thunderstorms;
- The risk of severe weather Friday is currently a level 1 out of 5.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the "Gabbing with Gary" blog!
Gary
