Good Monday bloggers,
We are tracking a strong storm system through the Plains and Midwest today and Tuesday. Our area is going to miss the biggest stuff, but we will see a little of a lot.
Let's go through this.
TODAY:
There is a strong cold front in central Kansas as of 5:30 a.m. Monday. It separates a blizzard in western Kansas from wind and temperatures in the 50s to the east.
We are in the dry slot of the storm which is the location in between the heavy snow to the west and northwest and heavy rain and thunderstorms to the east.
Now, the storm system is still evolving as a new center forms in southwest Kansas. This new center will track near KC Tuesday morning as the storm exits to the northeast. This set up will cause us to see some strong thunderstorms and some snow.
There is a Blizzard Warning from northwest Kansas to southeast South Dakota.
The main severe threat is located across Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi.
So, we are well north of the severe threat and well south and east of the snow. But, we still could see a little severe weather and a little snow. A little of a lot of weather.
We are in a level 1 of 5 risk of severe weather with hail the main threat. Hail needs to be a quarter sized or larger to be severe. Some thunderstorms may see wind gusts around 50 mph. Winds this morning are gusting to 40-50 mph without any thunderstorms.
TODAY (NOW-5 PM):
It will be windy and mild as temperatures rise to the upper 50s to mid 60s. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms, but overall it will be dry with some sunshine.
TODAY (5-10 PM):
The cold front will approach from the southwest associated with the new storm center, upper level low, tracking in from the southwest. A line of at least scattered thunderstorms will be possible during this time. These thunderstorms could bring very heavy rain, hail and wind gusts 45-55 mph. A quick .50"-1" of rain is possible with the thunderstorms.
TONIGHT 10 PM-TUESDAY 8 AM:
The thunderstorms will track northeast and weaken as an area of rain moves in from the southwest. This rain will likely change to snow around 4-5 a.m. as temperatures drop to the low 30s. The wind will be southwest shifting to the northwest at 15-30 mph.
If it is showery as seen in this pic then there will be little to no accumulation on any surfaces. If the snow is more widespread and steady, a dusting to 1" is possible on grassy and elevated surfaces. All surfaces may have some slick spots if the snow is widespread and heavy.
Any snow after 8 a.m. will not stick as the infrared radiation from the sun will cause melting.
TUESDAY AFTER 8 AM:
Any snow will end by noon Tuesday leaving a mostly cloudy, windy and cold day. Highs will be in the low 40s with a northwest wind 15-25 mph.
SNOWFALL FORECAST:
A dusting to 1" is possible anywhere in the blue area. Not all locations will see accumulation as it depends on where the small area of widespread snow tracks.
RAINFALL FORECAST:
Rainfall amounts so far have been paltry in the .05"-.25" range. We will likely see a new .10"-.50". If you get a thunderstorm, you may see up to a new 1" of rain.
The heaviest rainfall is going to fall from eastern sections of Oklahoma and Texas to the Great Lakes and northern Iowa to Minnesota. Some of the amounts to the north includes melted snow.
So, this is what we mean by see a little of a lot of stuff. We are missing the heavy snow, heavy rain and bigger severe weather but we may see a little severe weather and a little snow.
WEATHER TIMELINE SUMMARY:
The best time to see the strong thunderstorms with hail is 5-10 p.m.. The best time to see rain changing to snow is 4-5 a.m..
We will see a hard freeze Wednesday morning with lows in the low 20s. It still looks great for Opening Day. Lows will be in the 30s, but highs will reach the mid to upper 60s with abundant sunshine and a south breeze 10-20 mph.
Have a great week
Stay healthy
