Good Saturday bloggers,
The AFC Championship game is timed great as the weather this weekend is about as calm as it can be this time of year. Three days after the game the weather will be about as active as it gets around here as we will be tracking the potential for a winter storm.
Let's go through the forecast.
TODAY:
A major winter storm is affecting the east coast where 1-2 feet of snow is likely from Long Island to Cape Cod. You can see lightning out in the Atlantic Ocean, a sign of an intense storm system.
On the satellite you can see the big comma cloud. But, the speckled clouds off the southeast coast is a sign of extra upper level energy that will rev up the storm even more.
While the east coast is dealing with a huge storm, our weather is quiet. A warm front will move through taking our highs to the 50s with abundant sunshine and a southwest to west wind at 10-15 mph. There was 1-2 feet of snow in a small area of western Kansas and eastern Colorado on Tuesday. It is having an impact on highs out there. The snow cover is keeping highs in the 40s while it is surrounded by 60s.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY:
A weak cold front will move through tonight, so lows will drop to the 20s. This puts our area under a weak surface high pressure Sunday. This means we have great weather for football. Highs will in the 40s with abundant sunshine and a light wind. A warm front to the west will come through Monday.
Here is the specific forecast for the game. It will be a bit cold for tailgating, but with a light wind, abundant sunshine and a quick warm up it will be pretty decent. Temperatures will be in the 40s for kickoff.
Most importantly, my forecast for the score of the game is 34-23 Chiefs. It is going to be a tough game, but we have #15!
MONDAY:
We will make a run at 60° as a warm front moves through. We will see areas of high clouds with a south-southwest wind at 10-20 mph.
While we are enjoying some very nice weather on Monday, Arctic air will be entering the USA in Montana and North Dakota.
TUESDAY:
The Arctic air will be approaching I-80 as the cold front drops to the southern Plains. Temperatures may start around 50° here Tuesday morning, dropping to the 30s and 40s by afternoon.
As the colder air heads south a storm system will be tracking northeast out of the southern Rockies. This storm system will force warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico up and over our increasingly cold air mass. This is a set up for a variety of widespread precipitation.
WEDNESDAY:
The warm and moist air overrunning the cold air producing precipitation process begins Tuesday night and really gets going Wednesday.
There will be snow, heavy at times, a mix of sleet and freezing rain to the south of the snow and rain, thunderstorms south of the mix.
You can see we are near the mix-snow line.
EARLY MODEL SNOWFALL FORECAST:
This is not our official forecast, but this is what some of the main computer models we look at are showing for snowfall Tuesday night-Thursday.
This is still four to five days away and many factors will change. One of the bigger ones we are looking at today is the location of the mix-snow line. In the map above you can see we are near the mix-snow line.
So, factors that can affect snow totals are...
1. How much sleet/freezing rain precedes the snow?
2. The track of the storm system
3. The strength of the storm system. This will determine how much warm and moist air gets forced over the cold air.
4. How much liquid precipitation will fall. This is tied to #3.
We will be updating this forecast each day.
Can you imagine if the Chiefs game was Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday? Eek. The game is timed wonderfully.
Have a great weekend, stay healthy and GO CHIEFS!
