Good Monday bloggers,
We are tracking quite a storm system that will enter the middle of the USA tonight. It will take until Friday-Saturday for it to exit east through New England. It will weaken slowly after tomorrow. It is going to produce a blizzard in the northern Plains and severe weather from the southern Plains to the Gulf coast.
There is a Blizzard Warning from northeast Colorado to western South Dakota and eastern Wyoming. It is in effect from tonight through Wednesday-Thursday! A two to three day blizzard! Wow! That is even a bit much for these locations.
This storm will also bring three days of severe weather.
Here are the severe weather risks today through Wednesday. A few severe thunderstorms may occur later today and tonight across western Kansas to northwest Oklahoma. These few severe thunderstorms will increase in coverage, but weaken as they move east. It will evolve into a large area of rain and thunderstorms by the time it arrives in our area later tonight and early Tuesday.
Let's go through the timeline with this storm system.
Before we get a closer look, here is a Powercast view of the USA at 8 AM Tuesday. The storm has taken on a classic comma shape for storm systems in the mid-latitudes where we live. The blizzard is cranking up in the northern Plains and severe weather tracks from the southwest Plains to southern Plains.
By Thursday the storm system will still be in eastern Iowa. The comma shape is still there, but now it extends from the east coast to Great Lakes to Iowa. Cold air will be surging south around the west side of the storm. A few flurries and snow showers are possible around here Thursday and Friday.
Now to the weather timeline for our area.
MONDAY (NOW-MIDNIGHT):
Periods of drizzle will occur with increasing wind. Temperatures will rise to 40°-45° this afternoon and stay steady through midnight. It will be in the 30s across northern Missouri. The wind will be from the east and southeast to 10-25 mph.
TUESDAY (MIDNIGHT-2 AM):
The first round of rain, heavy at times, with a few thunderstorms will move into the region from the west. Temperatures will hold in the low to mid 40s. It will be in the 30s across northern and central Missouri, but warm enough to keep it rain. The wind will increase from the east and southeast to 15-30 mph.
TUESDAY (2 AM-NOON):
Periods of rain, heavy at times, with a few thunderstorms will cross the region. Temperatures will slowly rise to the mid and upper 40s. It will be in the 30s across northern Missouri. The wind will increase from the east and southeast to 20-40 mph. It is going to be a stormy Tuesday morning rush hour.
TUESDAY (NOON-2 PM):
The rain and thunderstorms will decrease to scattered showers. Temperatures will warm to the mid and upper 50s as we briefly go into the warm sector of the storm. The wind will continue from the southeast at 20-30, gust to 40 mph.
TUESDAY (2-5 PM):
A cold front will sweep through and temperatures will drop to the 40s. The wind will decrease to 10-15 mph from the southwest. Yes, a colder southwest wind behind the cold front. This is common with organized storm systems as the cold air wraps around the storm. A line of showers may accompany the front. If it were warmer, this line of showers would have the potential to be severe thunderstorms. Something to think about when this storm returns in the spring.
TUESDAY (5 PM-MIDNIGHT):
The rain will exit, then the clouds will exit as temperatures drop to the 30s. Once temperatures drop below 40°, it may be 10-15 days before we reach 40°. If we do reach 40°, it will be a brief time. The wind will be west to southwest 10-20 mph Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Thursday and Friday the wind will be northwest at 15-25 mph with highs 30°-35° and lows around 20°. We may see flurries and a few snow showers.
RAINFALL FORECAST:
It looks like we will see a widespread .50"-1" of rain. A few locations may see 1"-1.50". This is great news as we are still in a level 1/2 of 5 drought. The KC area is in a level 2/3 of 5 drought. Since October 24th we have been chipping away at the drought. December averages 1.57" of rain, so some locations may see 80-90% of the months average.
SNOWFALL FORECAST:
Snowfall will be in the 10" to 20" category across the Dakotas, Minnesota and parts of far northern Nebraska. Keep in mind this will come with 30-50 mph winds! Wow! Now, this is good news as these locations are experiencing drought conditions and snow is the best drought buster as most of the water slowly sinks into the ground when it melts. Also, this location is the Missouri and Mississippi river basins, so this will eventually help the very low river levels.
Here is a look at the drought monitor. There is still a lot of drought across the USA. So, this is a beneficial big storm.
Here is the summary of the KC weather timeline.
Have a great week.
Stay healthy.
