KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good Friday bloggers,
We are in a rather interesting weather pattern as we head in to the Christmas holiday weekend. A small system is exiting today. A bigger storm will cross the region Christmas eve and day. Right now this system is in two parts. There is a storm system in southern California and one approaching the Pacific northwest that will combine in the middle of the USA.
These two will become a rather large storm system in the middle of the USA for the Christmas holiday.
Let's go through this interesting forecast as we could see a months worth of rainfall, a foggy Christmas eve and some may see a "White Christmas".
TODAY:
The heaviest rain is moving away and we will see lingering showers until 8-10 a.m. This will be followed by a dry and mostly cloudy afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 50s. We may see a peek of sun before it sets today.
Tonight will be dry, calm and cool with lows in the 40s. The low Thursday morning was 51° and this was a record high low temperature breaking the old record of 50°. We are 51° again this morning, but the record is 54°.
SATURDAY:
This is going to be a nice day with highs in the low to mid 60s. It will be a dry day with increasing clouds and a south breeze 10-20 mph. The record high is 67°, we will come close.
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY:
Rain, heavy at times, and possibly a thunderstorm will move in during the early morning. The periods of rain, heavy at times, will continue all day. Highs will be near 60°. But, colder air will be pulled south across the western Plains as the storm develops. The wind will be south at 10-15 mph.
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT:
The storm will be intensifying as a surface low deepens near Kansas City. Right near the surface low there could be some fog, for a "foggy Christmas Eve." If it is raining, there won't be much fog, but Rudolph will be needed to lead the way in any case.
Colder air will be near KC around midnight as it wraps around the storm. 60° and 30s will be very close together and near KC. And, the colder air is just cold enough to change the rain to snow. The snow at midnight Christmas eve night will be well west of KC.
CHRISTMAS DAY:
It will be a much colder and windy day with temperatures in the 30s to around 40°. The wind will be west to northwest at 10-25 mph. Scattered rain showers will be around and yes, there could be a few snowflakes.
So, bundle up if you are headed to the Chiefs game that kicks off at noon.
CHRISTMAS DAY, NIGHT:
Accumulating snow may be rather close. On this data it is occurring from central Kansas to northwest Iowa. There is much uncertainty on how any snow will set up. Could it be here in Kansas City? Yes, but it is way to early to call as the data is all over the place.
As is, it looks like a mostly cloudy, windy and cold Christmas day night with the chance of snow showers and flurries.
TUESDAY:
The storm system will be slowly moving to the east and we will likely be in the wrap around. This means windy and cold with the chance of snow/rain showers. Highs will be in the 30s with lows around 30°. The wind will be west to northwest at 15-25 mph.
SNOWFALL FORECAST (A "WHITE CHRISTMAS"?):
A "White Christmas" will be a dream for most locations east of the Rockies. However, due to this storm system there will be a band about 50-100 miles wide that will make a "White Christmas" a reality and not a dream. The data below has the band of snow from central Kansas to northwest Iowa. Every model and every run of every model is different at this point.
So, confidence in the amounts and location of Christmas day accumulating snow is very low at this time. It will be interesting to see how the data evolves over the weekend.
RAINFALL FORECAST:
We are much more confident on rainfall. As a matter of fact we will likely see a month's worth of rainfall Christmas eve into Christmas day. All of December averages 1.57" and we are forecasting 1-2" of rain. There may be a few locations that see 2"-4" of rain! The heaviest bands are subject to shift around, but most locations will see 1"-2" regardless of where the heaviest rain sets up.
There will be quite a band of significant rain along I-35. This is all good news as there are still drought conditions all over the place, but around Kansas City we are in an oasis.
DROUGHT MONITOR AS OF DECEMBER 19TH:
There are moderate to severe drought conditions over about 90% of the area. There is a sliver of no drought from around Emporia, KS to KC. The storm systems since the new LRC started forming in October have been bringing most of their precipitation in the "no drought" corridor. Northwest Missouri has been getting much less or none from the systems. At least this Christmas storm will bring beneficial rain to all locations.
The wider view shows lots of drought east of the Rockies and the southern Rockies.
Have a great holiday weekend, Merry Christmas!
Stay healthy
Please do not drink/text and drive as there is a Drunk driving/texting while driving warning for the Christmas holiday weekend. This is in memory of all of those who have been injured or killed in drunk driving accidents. Nathan Mcduffie was killed by a drunk driver over 30 years ago.
