10:15 AM Update: A new heavy band of snow is approaching and will track across the KC metro area between now and noon. There may be 2" of snow in this band alone in less than two hours.
The snowfall rate will go up to around 1-2 inches/hour rate for around an hour or two. This will potentially produce 2 or more inches in the next two hours. There will be some more bands afternoon before it ends from west to east by later today.
It is quite treacherous out there and travel is being discouraged. 8" amounts are already being reported. Read below for the discussion on this storm and time-line.
Previous Entry Below:
Good morning bloggers,
The storm began with a heavy band of "thundermix." There was thunder and lightning with heavy sleet and snow stretching from Liberty, Missouri, southwest to Ottawa, Kansas at 4 a.m. Thundersnow and thundersleet were being reported. Temperatures are dropping and it is becoming slick and hazardous out there.
This is a long band of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. It stretches from Kansas City into northern Oklahoma. There are some rather heavy radar echoes and the snowfall rates may go over one inch each hour.
The KSHB 41 weather team will be monitoring this band closely. As it is changing from a mixture to all snow, it will likely effectively accumulate. The amount of snow will depend on how long your location is under this band. Our forecast of two to five inches north with four to eight inches south has not changed. There is a chance a few spots in the middle of this band will experience heavier amounts.
Thundersnow!
There have been reports of thunderstorms with the snow, and near these thunderstorms the snowfall rates are two to three inches per hour.
Look at this snow band at 4:50 a.m.:
This band is barely moving. It is drifting east with the echoes inside the band moving north-northeast. If you are in this band, then six inches of snow may fall in two to four hours. Get on Twitter and let @glezak know if you are in this band.
There is already nearly 3 inches of snow in this band near Kansas City International Airport. The snowfall rates will continue at nearly one inch per hour, possibly heavier for another few hours. Five hours of that amount of snow will be at least five additional inches. So, there is a good chance a few spots will get close to or exceed 10 inches of snow.
As of 7 AM there are reports of 3-4 inches already around Liberty to North Kansas City. The main storm is now approaching and heading into the KC region. The main storm is still holding together and is tracking between Dodge City and Wichita. We wondered if it would hold together, and it has. It is still holding onto enough strength that I am confident that this forecast below will be in addition to what has fallen. So, you can add another few inches to the 3 to 4 inches up north. And the areas to the south will also get into that range. A few spots may get closer to 10" of snow.
Again, this chart above shows the additional snow forecast for the rest of the day. I will go over the timeline in just a second.
Temperatures are dropping as you can see on this 4 a.m. surface map:
There is a strong north wind gusting to over 30 miles per hour as well. This will cause some blowing and drifting of the snow. Some drifts are already one foot deep. Travel is being discouraged.
Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Now through noon: Snow south and east of a St. Joseph to Topeka line. There will be very little if any snow north of that line. In Kansas City, there will be periods of heavy snow with 2 to 5 additional inches north and 4 to 8 additional inches south and east possible. This will put the northern areas up to close to 6 or 8 inches as well. There will be blowing and drifting of the snow with up to two foot drifts. These north winds gusting to 30 mph will make it difficult on road crews clearing the snow. It will be a dangerously slick drive if you have to travel. Provide a lot of extra time.
- Noon - 3 PM: The main disturbance will zip by and the snow will shut off. Temperatures will be in the upper teens to lower 20s with wind chill factors near zero. Make sure the kids wear gloves and extra layers of clothing to stay safe. Frostbite on exposed skin can happen in less than 30 minutes.
- 3 PM - sunset: The storm will be moving off to the east. Most roads will be snow packed, slick and dangerous
Well, well, well! Here it is! I tried to explain, on the air and in the blog, that we would have a more significant snowfall if this disturbance just holds together. The models that had more snow held it together, and the ones that had less snow weakened and stretched this wave out.
I am pointing to the little wiggle in the black line near Wichita, KS. This disturbance is still strong and about to begin to stretch out and weaken. But, since it is still alive and well, it continues to produce the heavier snow. This is why many more inches of snow are likely before this is over.
The snow will last into the early to mid-afternoon, and then this system will race off to the east. Ahead of the system the air is rising, and this causes the snow to form. Once it passes, the air will be forced to sink, and that will shut the snow down.
There are stand stills on many roads out there as cars are getting stuck and there are a few crashes.
Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. I will be updating the blog as this storm evolves. Be careful and allow a lot of extra time if you are traveling to work today.
Gary
