KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good Monday bloggers,
We have some incredibly nice weather as we start March. On the other hand, as we start March it is the beginning of the growing season and we need some precipitation. Let's go through the forecast.
TODAY-FRIDAY:
It will be dry with the chance of a record high on Wednesday. The air will be dry and this will increase the need for rain or snow.
TUESDAY:
After a high today in the low to mid-60s we will see highs Tuesday reach the low 70s. The wind will be southwest at 10 to 20 miles per hour. A terrific Tuesday!
WEDNESDAY:
This is the day where we have a chance to tie or break the record high of 80 degrees set in 1901! We will see abundant sunshine and not that much wind. Usually a big warm-up in March comes with howling winds.
THURSDAY:
A cold front will come in from the north and northeast — a "back door front" is sometimes called as it comes from the northeast instead of the standard northwest.
Highs will be in the 50s as the 70s and 80s get pushed southwest. It will still be a nice day with sunshine as there is very little moisture for the front to work with. The front is stalling and will head back north on Friday as a warm front in response to the first of 2-4 storm systems we will be tracking.
FRIDAY:
Highs will return to around 70 degrees with more clouds and wind. We may see a shower, but overall it will be a dry day.
The average high for the next 7 days is around 50 degrees. We will be running 20 to 30 degrees above average through Saturday.
MARCH 5-15:
This is the upper-level flow for Sunday, March 6. This shows a series of systems dropping into the western USA as a big upper-level high form over the southeast USA. The systems in the west will track northeast and east into the Plains and Midwest this weekend into next week. This opens the door for some much-needed precipitation in the region. But, will we walk through the door? We are really going to need rain after the next four sunny and warmer days with low humidity.
RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS:
This is the latest rainfall forecast for the next 10 days from most models. First, the rain chances don't start until Friday or Saturday. Second, you can see most of the rain is east of Interstate 35 and along and north of Interstate 80. This leaves our area to the southwest Plains quite dry. The Kansas City area is on the western edge of the meaningful rainfall.
This is not set yet and a shift west or east by 100 miles will make a big difference.
Below is the latest drought monitor. You can see 95% of the rain in the next 10 days occurs in areas that are doing fine with moisture. A shift 100 miles west will make a big difference for Kansas City, but not areas farther west. We are a stone's throw away from moderate to severe drought conditions. A half-inch to two inches of rain the next 10 days will fend the drought off in our area.
There are locations from Northwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas that have seen 20% of average rainfall/melted snow since the 12th of November.
Hopefully, we can get this rain area to shift west.
Have a great week. Stay healthy.
Jeff
