KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good morning bloggers,
There is the good, the bad and the ugly in our weather forecast in the next 10 days. As April comes to a close and we move into May, we are moving into the wettest time of the year in Kansas City. We average over 11 inches of rain between now and the end of June. Some spots may get half of that total by May 10. Let's take a look at the pattern.
500 millibar flow (18,000 feet above us): Valid 1 p.m. Saturday
This map shows the flow at around 18,000 feet up. There is an important feature shown with the "H" over Canada. This is a block that is forcing this LRC cycle to produce the series of storm systems that may be impacting in our area. This block also happened in the first LRC cycle! It is influencing the pattern and it is the main reason why we had another frost and freeze in our area yesterday.
The weather pattern is right on schedule according to the LRC. The LRC is the centerpiece of a big atmospheric puzzle, and on Monday we shared with you the incredible comparison of Oct. 13 in LRC cycle 1 and April 23 in cycle 4. The storm systems almost matched up perfectly. This next series of storm systems also looks incredibly similar to October's LRC cycle 1 version of the pattern. It was very wet in October and it is getting wetter now.
- The first storm in a series of three storm systems is going to begin impacting us tonight and will continue its influence into Saturday
- The second storm will impact us Monday
- The third storm, that Low near the Aleutian Island chain over western Alaska will be the third in the series of storm systems
Rainfall Forecast:
This map above shows the American Model (GFS) forecast of total rainfall during the next two weeks. It shows a low of 1.5 inches to a high of 5 inches of rain in our area. The first chance arrives tonight.
Rain is likely on Thursday with a few heavy thunderstorms possible before sunrise Thursday. The main storm will then approach Kansas City Friday. Look at this forecast surface map valid at 7 p.m. Friday:
I circled in with the dashed red line, the severe weather risk on Friday evening and night. Here is the severe weather risk on Friday:
There is a level 3 out of 5 risk of severe weather plotted by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) on Friday and Friday night. Kansas City is just east of this stronger risk. On the surface map, valid at 7 p.m. Friday, it shows another one of those "caps" that will prevent thunderstorms from forming early. But, this time, the storm is stronger and it should be able to overcome the cap with thunderstorms forming by sunset and then we have to watch them closely as they approach eastern Kansas Friday night. We will narrow in on the timing on our weather forecasts tonight.
Here is the KC weather time-line:
- Today: Mostly sunny and windy. Increasing south winds at 10-25 miles per hour. High: 76 degrees
- Tonight: Increasing clouds with a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms by 9 a.m. Thursday. Low: 55 degrees
- Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely during the morning. There is a chance of more thunderstorms later in the day into Thursday night. The chance of rain is 90% early and 50% later in the day. High: 64 degrees
- Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of early morning thunderstorms. There will likely be a break with no rain during the afternoon with a 60% chance of thunderstorms after sunset Friday night. High: 71 degrees
- Saturday: Colder and breezy. It will be partly cloudy with west winds 15-25 miles per hour. High: 60 degrees
Thank you for sharing in this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog. Have a great day!
Gary
