Good Monday bloggers,
Monday started with another hazy sunrise as smoke from the western wildfires continues in our sky.
We are seeing a beginning and end to the high heat as we track two main features in the upper level flow.
One feature is typical of summer, the anticyclone, upper level high, "heat wave creating machine." The second feature is more typical of winter, the "Polar Vortex."
The anticyclone Tuesday will be growing over the central Rockies while the Polar Vortex is located over northern Canada. The Polar Vortex is having no impact on our weather Tuesday.
On Wednesday-Thursday the anticyclone will increase and build from the central Rockies to the western Midwest, including Kansas City. The Polar Vortex is still sitting over northern Canada, helping not at all.
Look at what happens between Thusday and Saturday. A piece of the Polar Vortex drops south, to just north of the Great Lakes. This squashes and weakens the upper level high so that we go into northwest flow. This opens the door for a cold front and chance of thunderstorms.
The Excessive Heat Warning has been reduced to a Heat Advisory for Tuesday-Thursday.
The 25 second video below with no audio goes day by day through Friday.
Today we will see average heat with highs around 90. A weak surface high over eastern Iowa will send us slightly cooler air as we have a light east breeze.
Tuesday will warm to the low 90s followed by the upper 90s Wednesday and Thursday. We have not reached 100, officially, since July 12, 2018.
It is looking more likely that a COLD FRONT will arrive Thursday night-Friday. This will drop our highs Friday to the 80s and increase the chance of thunderstorms.
Remember, a heat wave is defined as three straight days of highs 95 or higher. So, if we reach 95 Tuesday we will have our first heat wave since July 2019 as Wednesday and Thursday will very likely see highs over 95. If we fall short of 95 Tuesday, the chance of a heat wave is greatly reduced due to the Thursday night cold front. No complaints from me.
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Olympic Weather:
Let's take a quick look at the weather for Tokyo. Tropical Storm Nepartak is about to move in to Tokyo as Tropical Storm In-Fa moves in to China. Fortunately, these systems will stay below typhoon status. A Typhoon is what they call hurricanes in the western Pacific Ocean.
Here is a powercast image valid at 4 PM Monday. You can see Nepartak bringing heavy rain to central Japan.
By Thursday you can see a weak reflection of Nepartak northwest of Japan. So, today and Tuesday will see the biggest impacts from the tropical system in Japan.
Have a great week and stay healthy.
