Good morning bloggers,
A strong storm system will be developing today as the energy comes over the Rocky Mountains and out into the plains. The Storm Prediction Center has a threat level 1 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms in our area, with the level 2 risk over Oklahoma and north Texas. The first thunderstorms that form later this afternoon have a low risk of severe weather with some hail and damaging winds as the main risk. A line of showers and thunderstorms will be developing near a cold front, and let's discuss in today's blog.
Here is today's severe weather risk:
By 5 PM this evening, a line of showers and thunderstorm will likely form and set up just north and west of Kansas City. Our models are in general agreement that they will be quite heavy and extend from around Plattsburg, MO southwest to Ottawa, KS. The leading edge is where they will be the strongest:
These thunderstorms will be developing along and behind a cold front, and this front will be on our doorstep by 5 to 6 PM as you can see below:
Cooler air will surge in after the front moves through, and the rain may last for three to six hours. We are forecasting rainfall amounts of around 1/2" with higher amounts likely where the thunderstorms line up. Up to 1 1/2" of rain is possible as this moves across the area this evening. There will some localized flooding in the areas that get closer to that 1.50" level.
We are still waiting on our first chance of an inch of snow, and we are not alone. Boulder, CO is nine days away from setting their latest measurable snow ever. The latest 0.1" of snow in Boulder, CO, which is considered measurable as it is equivalent to 0.01" of liquid, is November 19th. So, this is something to track in that region. In Kansas City, our first inch most often happens in December. Have you entered the snowflake contest? Go to KSHB.com/contests to enter:
Here is the Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Today: An increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms. The chance of rain is 10% early this morning. The chance increases to 60% by 3 PM, and 100% chance by 7 PM. The winds will be from the south at 10-20 mph. Temperatures will continue to be mild with a high of 65°
- Tonight: Rain and thunderstorms will end by midnight. 0.50" to 1.50" of rain is expected. The wind will shift to the northwest this evening. Expect northwest winds 10-25 mph overnight. Low: Near 40°
- Thursday: Happy Veterans Day! It will be mostly sunny, colder, and breezy. Wind: Northwest 10-25 mph. High: 54°
We will be monitoring the thunderstorms closely. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog. Have a great day! Stay with KSHB-41, and we'll keep you advised.
Gary
