Good Wednesday bloggers,
August is usually the time of year when we get a break from the tough forecasts as the "dog days of summer" settle in. But this year is going to be different as we have been in an active weather pattern and will continue to be in an active weather pattern.
Kansas was No. 1 and Missouri was No. 2 in severe weather reports for the United States for the month of July, the month with the most severe weather reports nationally, in 2023. That is not common.
A good thing about this active weather is that rain has been much needed due to the inactive April, May and June. Missouri has been one of the driest locations east of the Rockies for the last 3-4 months, especially northeast Missouri.
Rainfall the last 5 days has been a widespread 1"-2" across the KC area. There are some small locations that have seen 2"-3" of rain, with some seeing under 1".
The last two nights have seen some big rainfall events.
One in central Missouri Monday night and another Tuesday night across north-central to northeast and eastern Missouri. Rainfall has totaled 6"-11" in many locations.
If you notice, there are not many flash flood warnings as much of the water was received well. Now, that being said, there was flash flooding. In some cases, this was too much of a good thing all at once.
So, what's next?
The upper level high "heat wave creating machine" is going to retreat farther south into the southwest U.S.
First, this means no high heat for a while even though we will still see high humidity most days.
Second, this allows the jet stream to track farther south across the Plains and Midwest. In turn, this means countless thunderstorm-producing disturbances will cross our area.
There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every 1-2 days. Also, without the high heat, our severe threats may reduce.
This is not to say we won't have severe weather with some of the thunderstorms, but it may become less frequent.
TODAY:
It is already different than our thinking from this morning and much different than what any models are saying.
Our thinking was that we would warm to the low and mid-90s with a front stalled here. This would generate thunderstorms around 3-5 p.m. along I-70 near KC, with some being severe.
They would increase and move east while becoming mostly severe. Also, in order for the big thunderstorms to form, temperatures need to reach the low and mid-90s.
Well, we have seen rain-cooled air move in from the east and northeast where the big thunderstorms occurred across northeast Missouri last night.
Also, new weaker thunderstorms and showers formed in eastern Kansas from 9-10 a.m. They are moving through this afternoon.
These two factors are changing the situation today in a big way.
The heat and humidity are being pushed much farther south than it was supposed to, and the current clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms are keeping it much cooler with temperatures in the 70s and 80s.
So, it looks like we will see scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.
These may be the thunderstorms that become bigger tonight across central and eastern Missouri. But, they would be mostly in the colder air, so hail and some strong wind would be possible across central and eastern Missouri.
Flash flooding will be the biggest issue.
THURSDAY:
There is a slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Overall, this looks like a calmer weather day as the front sags well south. Highs will be in the 80s and the humidity will still be high.
Notice how the front is more of a warm front and setting up across the eastern Rockies. Remember, we still have plenty of humidity and we are tracking countless systems from the west and northwest.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY:
One of the countless disturbances will interact with the front in the eastern Rockies. This will likely generate a big complex of thunderstorms with severe weather in the western Plains Thursday night.
This complex will likely reach our area Friday morning. It should be in a weakening phase, but we have to watch it as the data has been horrible with this pattern, and we have plenty of humidity hanging around.
If it maintains more strength, we could see some strong wind gusts. But, flash flooding could be a bigger issue.
We could see more thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, especially during the morning.
Have a great rest of your week and stay healthy.
