KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good morning bloggers,
It looks like the luck of the Irish is with us today. We are forecasting temperatures to warm into the 70s for the St. Patrick's Day parade, and then a storm system will be approaching. We have had a lot of Thursday night storm systems in 2022.
Here is a look at the forecast at noon today:
A front will be stalling near Kansas City. This is shown with the alternating blue and red lines. It will begin sagging south this afternoon. Temperatures just ahead of this front will reach into the 70s while just north of the front it will be colder.
It is starting in the 50s this morning. The front is lining up just northwest of KC, and 75 degrees is likely on the parade route today. There will be increasing clouds as a storm system develops with rain forming southwest and west of KC later today.
By 9 PM tonight, the models are forecasting swirling bands of rain, and possibly a few thunderstorms. Snow will be forming over western Kansas near the Kansas/Colorado border this evening and it will become heavy with accumulations near Garden City, KS. This band of snow will also be heading our way and our chance of snow will depend on a few factors early Friday. There will be an upper level storm forming, and some models have this just a bit stronger than others. If it is a bit deeper, stronger, with lower heights aloft, then the column of air may be cold enough for the snowflakes to reach the surface on Friday.
On this next forecast map below the areas where the rain does mix with or change to snow are areas within what is called a comma head. This is where heavy precipitation is likely. As you can see here, not one location is forecast to drop to 32 degrees or lower, so any snow that does accumulate would most likely melt on roads and accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces.
For today's big St. Patrick's Day parade, the weather could not be better. There will be some increasing clouds and the chance of rain is low until after around sunset tonight when the chance of rain goes way up to 100% overnight.
I tweeted and posted this map above on Facebook and made an important point. Rainfall amounts will likely vary from .25" to 1.25". A few spots may get even a bit more if there are thunderstorms, or if that comma head really organizes on Friday. If this was snow we were predicting and not mostly rain, we would be hearing ridiculous things from a few readers of the blog and viewers of KSHB-41 news.
Liquid to solid ratios, or rain to snow ratios are usually 10-1. So, this forecast of 0.25" to 1.25" would be equivalent to us predicting 2.5" to 12.5 inches of snow. Now, when we get our final rainfall totals tomorrow if some of you have .33" of rain and some of you have over an inch, it will be wet, the salt will have been washed away, and no one will call us out on how much they received. If it was snow, and some of you had 3" and others had a foot of snow, we may hear from many people that get 3 or 4 inches and they wonder where the 5 or 10 inches are. Snow is the only parameter in meteorology that there are expectations of absolute perfection. Now, we have predicted each winter storm accurately this year, and there is a different perception out there. Snow is just one of the measurements of accuracy that may be just too demanding. And, this is why we make those ranges and quite often I stress the lower numbers to have everyone's expectations to be realistic.
Here is just one solution showing a wide range of rainfall predictions for this storm. There may be a few inches of snow as well, most likely near Maryville, MO and far northern locations:
Kansas City Weather Time-line:
- Today: Increasing clouds with a southeast breeze at 5-15 mph shifting to the north at 10-15 mph later today. High in the 70s south of the front and 60s north of the front. It will be near 75° on the parade route around 1 to 3 PM before the temperatures start falling. The chance of rain will increase to 40% by 6 PM.
- Tonight: A 100% chance of rain and it may change to snow over far northern locations later tonight. In KC it will stay liquid. Low: 35°
- Friday: There is a chance that the rain may mix with or briefly change to snow and then change back to rain. There may be a slushy snow accumulating on grassy surfaces north of I-70. temperatures mostly in the 30s during the day. The chance of rain is 100%.
Another storm system that will spread rain our way is in early next week's forecast. We will go in-depth with all of this in our weather forecasts today and tonight on KSHB-41 news.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog and sharing in this weather experience. Have a safe and great St. Patrick's Day!
Gary
