Good Tuesday blog readers —
It sure is feeling like spring here in Kansas City, even though it's the middle of winter.
Today is basically the heart of winter where our coldest average max temp sits at 39 degrees.
Tomorrow, Jan. 31, our normal rises to 40 degrees.
So while it feels like spring, keep in mind we are only half way through winter.
The temperature trend the next few days though, my goodness, it's such a nice treat. It's no April fools joke that Feb. 1 is rolling in with the same climate average as April 1.
The saying goes, "April showers bring May flowers," right? So it makes sense that through this spring tease we'd be tracking rain chances.
Thursday Night
There is a low pressure core that is heading into southeast Canada that has a trailing cold front that is just barely going to touch us here in the Midwest.
But nonetheless it is some kind of forcing mechanism we need to watch.
With a shortwave also being ejected from the Rockies, we are watching that little ripple to possibly get some direction and moisture that could bring very light rain to Kansas City Thursday Night into early Friday.
Most of this light rain will favor northeast Missouri into central Illinois, but I can't rule out a sprinkle or some light rain here in KC.
Rain totals by Friday morning will be minimal if anything, but here is what the European model is spitting (pun intended) for us by 7 a.m. Friday.
Friday-Sunday
So think of a waterfall — at the bottom of a waterfall, there is a lot of turbulence right?
But unless there is a fast moving current that water just kind of bubbles up in that location, the atmosphere behaves very similarly.
The Rocky Mountains are our waterfall here in the Plains. The surface low that gets bubbled up Thursday night that strings together with that trailing front is a good example of this.
There isn't any river or jet or stream to move those bubbles around, so we get a stationary front to form over the KC area.
Stationary fronts means we will be dealing with multiple days of rain chances Friday through Sunday.
Friday night into Saturday, this system will start to occlude. That means it will reach it's mature stage before it even moves east a whole lot.
But it looks to be in just the right location to stir up some moisture for us that could linger almost all day Saturday.
Sunday, the jet stream joins the party and pulls this dying system along and toward Florida.
Now this could happen quickly into Sunday or it could linger at bit. Right now I'm thinking by Sunday 5 p.m. we will be drying out.
The track on this storm has about a 60-mile shift between models from east to west, so the bulk of the rain could be over KC or just to our west.
With that in mind I'm keeping rain projections low end and simple, for now.
By Sunday midday we could pick up close to 1 inch of rain in KC with the heavier rain tracking to our south with this system.
Winter's Return
So remember it is still winter, and what comes up, must come down. We've nudged that Arctic Air well into northern Alaska, and it will stay there for at least another week.
The temp trend for the first week of February will stay well above average for us and the storm track will continue to hit to our south with leftover kind of events for us to try and tap into.
But there is one system and pattern change I'm keeping my eye on and it is looking likely around Feb. 10.
So remember the arctic air is into northern Alaska, right? It's the hot pink on this map.
So in order to colder air to return we need a low pressure system to start in Canada and dig south. This could happen around Feb. 8-10.
Now don't panic.
Right now this doesn't look like a full blown Arctic outbreak, but more of a slight shift that brings winter back into focus.
We will see this low (if it materializes right) bring some colder air with it through the west coast and into the Plains.
By Feb. 11-12, we could see the Arctic air settle back into central Canada vs northern Alaska, meaning back to near freezing temperatures for Kansas City.
So a good reminder to enjoy this spring Tease while we have it.
