Good Super Bowl Sunday bloggers,
The Super Bowl is always interesting, but I still am not sure how the Chiefs lost to the Bengals. Oh well, on to the weather.
SUPER BOWL on KSHB 41:
There is a Heat Advisory in LA for today with highs around 90° and low humidity. This seems like a bit low on the criteria for a Heat Advisory, but due to all the people there it is understandable.
Now, let's get to our weather.
SUPER BOWL SUNDAY:
We have a cold front zipping through this morning associated with a dry clipper (fast-moving system from the northwest) system. This morning it will be breezy with wind chill values in the single digits and teens. The wind drops way off this afternoon.
This evening, after watching KSHB 41 all day and coming home from Super Bowl parties, it will be cold with a 10 mph wind. Wind chill values will be in the teens.
There is a DRUNK/TEXTING DRIVING WARNING in effect, in memory of all those injured or killed in drunk/texting while driving accidents. Please DO NOT drink/text and drive.
VALENTINE'S DAY:
Highs will reach to around 50° with a southwest to north wind at 5-15 mph as a weak cold front drifts south. It will be a nice day and a 180° from last year when it was dangerously cold along with 1" of snow.
TUESDAY:
We will see a windy warm up to the low 60s as high clouds increase. The wind may gust to 40-50 mph Tuesday afternoon and night from the south. This wind will be transporting Gulf of Mexico moisture north in response to a storm system tracking into the southwest USA.
WEDNESDAY:
We will start the day near 60° as a strong cold front drifts through. Rain will likely form along this front during the day with perhaps a few thunderstorms as well. The best chance of thunderstorms will be south and east of our area. The colder air will surge in Wednesday night as the precipitation increases in response to the storm system tracking out of the southwest USA into the Plains. The keyword in the last sentence is "tracking."
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY:
As usual trying to forecast snow in our area is quite a challenge, even more so with this weather pattern. As usual we are getting all kinds of solutions from each run of data from each model. We are going to show the American model as an example.
This is an image of the 6Z Sunday data. It shows our region firmly in the comma head of a well defined storm. This solution means we see decent rain, changing to some ice followed by a few hours of accumulating snow for the entire region.
Severe weather would be possible from southern Missouri and points south into the Tennessee valley.
Below is the 0Z Sunday run of data from the American model. This is literally the previous run to the one shown above. In this solution we would see some rain Wednesday into Wednesday night as it shifts east. Then, early Thursday ice and snow would increase south and east of a line from Kirksville, Missouri to Wichita, Kansas. This would split our region between nothing and a few inches of snow as the storm races east, intensifies and moves away.
There are runs of the Canadian model that have this 100 miles farther south, meaning our whole region gets missed.
The severe weather would shift south as well.
So, what is right? Unfortunately, at this time, all solutions are viable. The "LRC" does suggest that the "storm in our region" solution is correct. But, you can see a shift of 100 miles north or south will make a huge difference on what weather occurs in your area. And since seasonal differences can affect the "LRC" we just have to see how the data trends the next few days. Stay tuned!
Regardless of what solution is right, most of the precipitation with this storm will occur east of where it is needed, in the southern Plains. Below is the latest drought monitor. Our area is still OK to abnormally dry. If this next storm is a miss, the drought conditions just to the west will creep into our region. There are two-three systems to watch through March 15 that could bring some decent precipitation to the dry areas and our region.
Have a great week and stay healthy.
