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Weather Blog: Cold Opening Day, a look at next week's storm

Next week's set-up
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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good morning bloggers,

Severe thunderstorms raged across the southeast U.S. yesterday producing around 55 reports of tornadoes. Most of them were small, but they did cause damage and at least one person was killed yesterday from the severe weather. There was even one tornado that hit a business and a man was on the porch videotaping while the roof was ripped off above him. "There goes the roof," he said. Please don't try to get these videos and get to your safe place. Tornadoes are insanely strong and deadly.

Here are the severe weather reports from yesterday:

Severe Reports

There was even one strong thunderstorm that blew up over Pettis County north of Sedalia, Missouri, yesterday at sunset. A couple of 60 miles per hour wind reports were recorded closer to Columbia, Missouri.

Today's severe weather risk:

Severe Outlook Today

There is another level three of five risk over the Southeast again today. This is forming ahead of a major storm over the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. Blizzard conditions are possible today over Minnesota and North Dakota. Clouds will stream around this system and head our way this afternoon with a chance of a brief shower.

I will finish this blog with our forecast discussion on Opening Day at The K and more. Let's look farther ahead into next week.

Severe Weather Outlook From The Storm Prediction Center For Next Wednesday:

Severe Weather Outlook Next Wednesday

The SPC has an outlook for next Wednesday as "Predictability Too Low." Early to mid-next week is right on schedule, per the LRC for a series of severe weather set-ups that we predicted on our weather special to return around mid to late April. There are two main systems we have been predicting, one of them early to mid-next week and another one the following week. This year's LRC has been producing a lot of tornadoes and severe weather so far with a near-record number in March. The LRC is a description of the cycling weather pattern above us, and this year's LRC is producing strong conditions for these tornado outbreaks. Kansas City is often protected for various reasons (geographic location), and with this year's LRC we are predicting a few big set-ups near our region. Could one of these be next week?

Latest data on next Wednesday:

Next week's set-up

One thing that has been lacking in our area thus far is high humidity. For a severe weather outbreak to occur, the first ingredient necessary is Gulf of Mexico moisture. Look at what is forecast for mid-next week:

Humidity surge

If we get a humidity surge like this, then the risk of severe weather will be significant. This part of the pattern has already produced level four of five risk of severe weather in LRC Cycle One in October and in LRC Cycle Two in December. There were at least two of these moderate, level four, risks in each of those previous cycles. So, this has our highest attention at the moment. The setup for Sunday night through next Thursday is looking a bit different from day to day, and this is why the SPC is saying predictability is too low at the moment. We will go in-depth and showcase next week's set-ups on KSHB 41 today and tonight.

Kansas City weather timeline:

  • Today: 100% sunshine to start the day with increasing clouds by noon. There may be a brief shower or two this afternoon. The wind will gust over 30 miles per hour from the northwest and west today. High: 60 degrees
  • Opening Day at The K (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, windy and colder. There is a chance of a few brief showers during the afternoon and evening. Winds northwest 15-30 miles per hour and gusty. High: 45 degrees

There is even a chance of snowflakes Thursday evening. Yes, another Thursday night with a chance of snow!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog and sharing this weather experience. Have a great day.

Gary