KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Happy last day of Meteorological Fall Blog Readers -
I'll be wrapping up September, October & November after the climatology report is published later today, so watch social media for those numbers Friday... but the sneak peak is that our Fall was warm-ish and dry.
As we close out November though, we are tracking some storm system's. A shortwave has developed off the lee side of the Rockies in the Texas panhandle and is tapping into the Gulf of Mexico just right to pump some rain into Kansas City. And a geomagnetic storm is heading for Earth... more on that later.
Storm Timeline
When it comes to this storm being wet or white, it will mostly be wet. As in rain will be the main impact many of us will be dealing with. There is a chance for some mixed precipitation that includes ice north near St. Joseph and snow for our far northern viewers.
Thursday 5 p.m. - 10 p.m.
- Light to moderate Rain will lift in from the south around 5 pm and make it closer to Interstate 70 and the metro core by 10 p.m.
Thursday 10 p.m. - Friday 2 a.m.
- Heavy, soaking rain possible for many across the greater Kansas City Area
Friday 2 a.m. - 6 a.m.
- A sliver of snow tries to mix in for areas north
- Morning commuters should expect wet and slick roads but drying skies by 6-8 a.m.
Friday 2 p.m. - 7 p.m.
- As high pressure slides south into the Dakotas colder air will wrap into the back side of the low and provide a second opportunity for a rain/snow mix
- This time getting closer to the Kansas City area
Storm Impacts
When it comes to impacts from this storms, watch for wet roads Friday morning, some mixed precipitation for the Friday evening commute, and a little bit of ice potential for northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. The Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) has areas north of Kansas City in the "Minor" category for winter weather impacts with this system.
The main reason for this is there is a chance for ice accumulation, and since this storm will start out wet and then transition to white, any of the snow that sticks could have some ice underneath. As well as anywhere in the metro that holds onto a wet surface Friday night could see some freezing concerns. But when it comes to totals of ice, they aren't that impressive. The same can be said about snow, it wont be all that impressive.
So while there is a bit of winter trying to mix into this storm, most of us will be dealing with rain. Here's a look at where those rain totals could round out by the end of the evening Friday.
The Show
The Aurora Borealis is expected to start dancing tonight as well. Unfortunately with our storm our view of it will be blocked. But let's talk some science anyway! A solar storm of magnetic energy is heading to Earth as I type this, don't worry this is perfectly normal! The sun is made of plasma, and large expulsions of plasma (that carry magnetic fields) from the Sun's corona can happen a few times a month or sometimes a few times a day. These expulsions are called Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs).
- Early Monday Nov. 27 NASA's Space Weather Scientists captured a CME as a filament eruption from the southwest that will pass mostly south and ahead of Earth
- Late Monday Nov. 27 they also measured an eruption and a partial halo CME
- Halos or Partial Halos are what these scientists are watching for impact here on Earth
- Nov. 28 a flare associated with a full halo CME merged with the earlier expulsions
These 4 events prompted the Space Weather Prediction Center to issue the following statement, "With 3 CMEs already inbound, the addition of a 4th, full halo CME has prompted SWPC forecasters to upgrade the G2 Watch on 01 Dec to a G3 Watch. This faster-moving halo CME is progged to merge with 2 of the 3 upstream CMEs, all arriving at Earth on 01 Dec. G3 (Strong) conditions are now likely on 01 Dec."
This series of CME's has created a geomagnetic storm that will disrupt Earth's magnetosphere creating the colorful dancing northern lights. Some geomagnetic storms can disrupt radio communication and GPS navigation but this one shouldn't be strong enough to do that. The last few G3 to G4 events we've been able to see the Aurora here in Missouri and Kansas so when I see space weather activity like this I get hopeful we have another chance, but the cloud cover tonight will ruin it tonight into early Friday, Dec.1.
