Good Wednesday bloggers,
A strong storm system will rip out in the plains Friday. It will bring a large area of very windy conditions along with the threat of severe weather.
We are on the eastern edge of a wind advisory and fire weather watch. We are on the western edge of a severe weather threat.
The Wind Advisory is for gusts to around 45 mph due to the strength of the storm system.
Since the winds will be strong and the ground is dry not too far to our south and west, there is a fire weather watch just west of Kansas City with a fire weather warning in the western plains where it is ridiculously dry.
The strong wind and dry ground will make fires start easily and if they start, spread rapidly.
Below is a quick video (no audio) of the potential weather Thursday and Friday as we track our first legitimate threat of severe weather this season.
It will be very windy Thursday afternoon through Friday with gusts 40-50 mph.
There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday morning that could bring hail.
It's the thunderstorms that form Friday afternoon that will become severe rapidly after they form. The big question is where will they form? Will they form west of Kansas City, along the state line or 50 miles or more east of Kansas City? The formation area is going to be huge in determining who sees severe weather.
Some of our data has thunderstorms Friday morning, some don't. Some of our data has thunderstorms forming near the state line around noon Friday, some don't. Some have them forming 100 miles east of Kansas City, but none really have them forming to the west of Kansas City. It will take 30 minute to an hour for the thunderstorms to become severe after initial formation. They will be moving around 50 mph. So, this means they will become severe about 50 miles east of where they start forming.
This puts Kansas City on the western edge of the Friday severe threat. Note, the data shown below has them forming around the state line Friday at noon. This is not set yet.
Have great week and stay healthy.
