Good Wednesday, bloggers —
We are in for some great weather today through Friday as much cooler and less humid air continues to move in from the northeast.
So far this summer, since June 1, we are right around average on the high temperature.
Our average high between June 1 and July 31 is 86.5°. As of July 16, we are sitting at 86.3°.
Yes, this does not take into account the days with out-of-control humidity where the heat index reached 105°-110°.
Now, when you see the forecast below, keep in mind that between July 16 and Aug. 7, our average high is 89° and average low is 68°-69°.
This period, on average, is our hottest time of the year.
So, what is going on? The first thing to look at is the upper-level flow.
The upper-level flow today through Friday features a trough swinging through the Great Lakes with the "heat-wave creating machine" — also known as an upper-level high, anticyclone or "the heat dome" — pushed to the southwest U.S.
This trough has brought a strong summer cold front from Canada.
This means we are looking at temperatures 10-15 degrees below average through Friday.
So, in most years, if we have a cold front like this, the summer heat returns after 3-4 days.
Well, not in 2024. The upper-level flow for the weekend into next week is quite interesting.
The jet stream retreats way north into Canada as you would normally expect this time of year.
This would usually at least average summer heat as no cold fronts can usually make it this far south with the jet stream way up there.
There is not really going to be a cold front this weekend or next week, but temperatures will continue to run 10-15 degrees below average during the hottest time of year.
Why?
The "heat dome" is still in the southwest U.S. and is connecting with a ridge in western Canada.
This allows for an upper-level low to sneak through the northern Rockies, southwest Canada and then turn south into the middle of the country.
You can see a small dip in the flow on the map above in the northern Rockies to southwest Canada.
This system gets caught between the dome in the southwest and a dome extending west into the southeast from the "Bermuda high."
The low becomes a cut-off low, weather person woe as it will meander for 3-5 days before exiting. It is a woe to meteorologists as it is hard to know where it will exactly be from day to day as it meanders about.
The location is important as it tells us where the heaviest rain will occur from day to day.
Let's go through this interesting July forecast.
WEDNESDAY:
Here is a North American view of the highs. You can already see the pattern of the warmest weather west and the coolest weather east.
When we look closer, our highs are in the low 80s. As the even cooler air moves in, there may be an isolated shower or thunderstorm this evening, mostly north of KC.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
I will let the maps below speak for themselves. Basically, highs will be in the upper-70s to low 80s with lows in the upper-50s to low 60s.
The wind will be northeast at 5-15 mph with abundant sunshine and low afternoon humidity.
SATURDAY:
This is when things start to change as we track the upper low that is going to sit here for several days coming in from the north-northwest.
We are around 80°, but look just to the north, temperatures are in the 70s Saturday afternoon.
That cooler air is being caused by clouds, rain and a few thunderstorms. So, our chance of showers and thunderstorms increases later Saturday afternoon and night.
SUNDAY:
There is a good chance for periods of rain and thunderstorms. Our high may be 80° but will drop to the 70s in rainy areas.
If it rains most of the day and is overcast all day, our highs will be in the 70s.
RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 10 DAYS:
1"-2" of rain is likely in most locations. There will be pockets of 2"-4" and 4"-7" of rain.
The exact location of those pockets is still unknown as it depends on the location of the cut-off low which in turn will tell us where the heaviest rain and thunderstorms will occur.
The flow is rather weak, so we do not expect much, if any, severe weather. Flooding and flash flooding could become an issue.
When we widen the view out, you can see the heavy rain covers the southeast 1/3 of the U.S. along and east of the cut-off low, while drier weather is found to the west under the large western North America ridge.
The rain in the southwest is from the monsoon which occurs, at times, in the dome.
So, if you don't like the summer heat, then the Super 10 Day forecast below is super!
If you like the summer heat and want good pool weather, the Super 10 Day is not so super.
Have a great rest of your week.
Stay healthy.
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