Good Tuesday bloggers,
We are in an interesting July weather pattern. We are in between the consistently hot and dry areas to the south and the cooler areas with thunderstorm chances to the north. What does this mean? We will likely get a taste of both weather situations. Timing the best chance of thunderstorms is tough more than one-two days in advance.
Also, even thunderstorms that don't affect our area, but come close can have an impact with clouds and/or a rain cooled outflow boundaries.
Let's go through this.
First, we look at the upper level flow.
Today we are on the edge of the upper level high ("heat wave creating machine"). It is hard around here to reach 100°, even 95°-99° when we are not inside the upper level high as thunderstorm complexes like to track around the edge of the "heat wave creating machine."
This is a classic situation where we are not going to see any thunderstorms, but thicker high clouds from the anvils of thunderstorms in Nebraska are over our sky. This will not only keep us from reaching 100°, but may well keep us in the low to mid 90s. Yes, that is still hot, but not as hot as it could be.
Friday, we go into the upper level high, but the center is still in the southwest USA. This means Friday may be our hottest day as the thunderstorm track shifts to I-80. Below, we will discuss Wednesday and Thursday.
There is a subtle change over the weekend. The upper level high is still in about the same place, but the eastward extension is gone and we go back to northwest flow. This shifts the storm track closer to our area.
WEDNESDAY:
We may see a few thunderstorms and clouds as a weak disturbance rides the north edge of the upper level high's eastward extension. In other words, we are still not under the upper level high or its extension.
That being said, we are going for a high of 98°, but you can see how close cooler air is located. It will be interesting to see how hot it gets today with no rain, but a lot of clouds from a dissipating cluster of thunderstorms in Nebraska.
THURSDAY:
There are signs of a bigger disturbance riding the edge of the upper level high. You can see at 5 p.m. we have clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. It still may get to the low 90s ahead of this disturbance. It may still get to the upper 90s if the disturbance is smaller and/or timed for morning/night.
This temperature map is picking up the disturbance. You can see the kink in the 100° heat right near KC. We are going for a high of 99° and it may be that hot all across Kansas and Missouri, except where that disturbance is located. Check out our future forecasts to see if we drop the high temperature and increase the chance of thunderstorms.
FRIDAY:
This is looking like the hottest day where we make a run at 100° as we are inside the upper level high. Disturbances and fronts are pushed to the north. We are going for a high of 99°.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
Our current forecast for the weekend is to see highs of 97° both days. We will have to watch this forecast as the upper level high east extension is gone and it opens the door for a front and disturbances to track across the region. This in turn opens the door for thunderstorms.
Speaking of thunderstorms, how are we doing on rain? July has been a much more active month than either May or June. That is backwards as the rainfall in May and June are supposed to help contend with the hotter and drier months of July and August.
Here are the running July rainfall totals as of July 25. The total average for July is 4.58". Some locations are already above average for the month, such as downtown KC and south Overland Park.
Why did we turn the rainfall totals to blue in South Overland Park, downtown KC and Olathe? Hint, it is not because they are above average rainfall for July.
Incredibly, those locations have seen more rain July 1-25 than they received during May and June combined! That is quite odd as May and June are on average the wettest months of the year.
Hopefully, we can keep the rain coming and the severe weather and heat away.
Have a great rest of your week
Stay healthy
