Good Wednesday bloggers,
The weather around here is always a challenge. The next three-five days we will be tracking the potential for a heat wave in some locations and the potential for thunderstorms in some locations. The best way to explain is to go day by day through the next three-five days.
Also, we will look at the rainfall forecast and how it is impacting the current corn crop.
The upper level pattern features a well defined upper level high over Texas. During the summer these are often the "heat wave creating machines." Around the edge of these upper level highs you often get clusters of thunderstorms, often called the "rim of fire." Kansas and western Missouri is in the "rim of fire", and there have been two decent sized clusters of thunderstorms tracking around the upper level high. But, they have stayed south of KC, leaving a few showers and thunderstorms in our area. It has not mattered what weather setup we have been in this Spring and early Summer. We cannot buy a widespread beneficial rain event.
TODAY:
We will see a few morning showers and thunderstorms and then the heat arrives along with high humidity. Highs will range from 85°-90° in northern Missouri to around 95° in KC to 95°-100° south of KC. Take a look at the wind arrows. You can see a front developing northeast of KC. This will play a role in our heat forecast.
THURSDAY:
The front will set up right near the river. This means locations to the south of the river have the best chance to see a heat wave which is three straight days with highs 95° or higher. North of the river, and more so north of KC highs will be more like 85°-90°.
You must be thinking with a front stalled here that increases the chance of thunderstorms. Well, in most years the answer is yes. This is not most years. The temperatures at 10,000 feet are very warm. This is called a "cap." So, despite the front, heat and humidity, this front will sit here dry Thursday as the thunderstorms track across Nebraska and Iowa.
FRIDAY MORNING:
There is a chance to finally see some thunderstorms in northern Missouri. If this happens, then the front will get pushed south and the heat wave potential for KC vanishes.
If there are no or just a few thunderstorms, then the heat wave potential is back on.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON:
In this scenario, the front is farther south, so highs in KC would be around 90°, 80°-85° to the north and in the 90s south. Again, less thunderstorms the forecast map for Friday will look like the forecast map for Thursday.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:
OK, it looks like a weather system will track across the region and interact with our front. But, at this time it looks like more scattered thunderstorms around our region with the better rainfall occurring across Nebraska and Iowa.
Highs Saturday may drop to around 80°.
Right now Sunday through Tuesday, the Fourth of July holiday weekend, is looking mostly dry with highs 85°-90° and lows 65°-70°. An isolated thunderstorm is possible on July 4.
THE CURRENT CORN CROP:
The map below shows the latest percentage of corn that is in the good to excellent category, by state. Corn that is any worse than good to excellent does not offer much.
You can tell where there has been decent rain by looking at these ratings.
Missouri to Illinois and Michigan are seeing corn at 25% to 30% good to excellent. That is a problem. The states in yellow are around 50% good to excellent. This includes Kansas as there has been decent rain the last few weeks. This is better, but still not great. Ohio and North Dakota have ratings that would be considered beneficial. Those states have corn in the 65%-70% good to excellent category.
A nice rain event during the next 10 days will help most of the corn quite a bit. Then, it becomes too late.
Well, there are increasing rain chances for much of these states. But, there are always locations that get left out.
RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT SEVEN-10 DAYS:
There is plenty of good news here as widespread 1"-3" of rain is looking more likely from Nebraska to Iowa to Illinois and Indiana. Even Michigan could see .50"-2" of rain.
The location that may get left out is Missouri and especially around our area. This could still change, but this has been what is happening. Northern Missouri may get in the 1"-3" zone. That would be great. The rain for Illinois is also just on paper, but there is much consistency in the data for this to occur.
Could our rainfall forecast change, meaning we see more rain? Yes, it could change, but there has been no evidence it can change and the data is pretty consistent on this solution. We can still hope.
Have a great week, stay healthy.
