Good Monday bloggers,
Before we get to the weather, I have to be a proud father. My son Skyler went to chase and photograph trains this last Saturday, but he ended up finding thunderstorms and trains. He was in the Liberty, MO to Hardin, MO area.
The photo of mammatus clouds is on the cover of this blog.
Here are more photos.
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
OK, now to the forecast as we track some changes.
TODAY (3rd of July):
It is going to be a hot afternoon with highs around 90°, a light wind and moderate humidity.
This evening a few thunderstorms are possible west of KC as a weak disturbance drifts through central and eastern Kansas. Temperatures will drop to around 80°.
4th OF JULY:
An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible Tuesday morning, but the chance is less than 10%. I know there are some morning 4th of July neighborhood parades. It will basically be dry with temperatures warming quickly from the 70s to 80s.
It will be a hot 4th of July afternoon with highs around 95°. The humidity will be higher with a bit more of a breeze from the south at 10-15 mph.
It looks good for fireworks Tuesday evening. It will be warm with temperatures slowly cooling through the 80s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible, but again the chance is less than 10%. If a thunderstorm should form it would not move very much and last 15-30 minutes, so it would have to form over you to cause an issue.
If you look at the upper left corner of the map below, you can see bigger thunderstorms.
TUESDAY NIGHT:
Those thunderstorms are along a cold front tracking southeast across Nebraska. Those thunderstorms up there will likely be severe with damaging wind gusts and hail the main threats. The tornado threat is there as well.
WEDNESDAY (5th OF JULY):
Once the thunderstorms form they will head southeast. If they get here before 9 AM Wednesday, we will have a chance to see a period of more widespread rain.
There are growing indications that these thunderstorms will arrive 1-7 AM Wednesday. If they do, we could eek out a widespread .10"-1" of rain before they fall apart. If they get here we could see some low end severe gusts meaning a few gusts to 55-60 mph and some quarter sized hail or less.
If the thunderstorms do not get here early Wednesday, we will likely get mostly missed. New thunderstorms, possibly severe, will form on the cold front again Wednesday afternoon and evening. But, it looks like the front will be across southern sections of Kansas and Missouri into Oklahoma and Arkansas. So, if we do not get the early thunderstorms, then we will see rain 100 miles north and then 100 miles south of KC.
Whether we see much rain or not, at least we will see widespread cooler and less humid air Thursday into Friday.
Highs Wednesday will likely be in the 80s, rain or not. The humidity will drop Wednesday night-Thursday.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
The weather looks great with highs around 80°, lows around 60°, low humidity and periods of clouds. The wind will be mostly 5-15 mph from the northeast, east and then southeast. Any time you can get this weather in July it is a win.
THE WEEKEND:
The summer heat and humidity will return to the southern Plains as the cooler air holds from the northern Plains to Midwest.
OK, this does set up a zone of thunderstorms that could set a path in our area. Now, we had a zone of thunderstorms set up the last 4-5 days and it was 100-200 miles north of our area.
This is not set yet and we know how the rain has been going. We are due and overdue to get widespread rain and thunderstorms.
And for the "Swifties" out there, the most likely timing for thunderstorms with this set up is midnight to 10 AM. So, we will be watching this closely.
The data is still showing the same song and dance the next 7 days, keeping us in the "hole". It has to change some time, right?
Have a great rest of your holiday weekend and stay healthy.
There is a Drunk/Texting while Driving warning in effect. Please do NOT drink/text and drive.
