Good morning bloggers,
The weather pattern continues to evolve before our eyes. The new LRC, which describes the cycling pattern of the Northern Hemisphere, sets up in October and November, and we are experiencing the first cycle of this year's pattern. When the pattern began in early October, storm systems suddenly started producing wide spread rain, thunderstorms, and severe weather risks. And, another one is coming our way. The most recent storm ended an 880-day streak with no tornado watches in the KC metro area. Well, the streak ended in Platte, Clay, and Jackson counties when the Tornado Watch was issued yesterday afternoon, but the streak actually continues in Wyandotte and Johnson counties. The streak for those counties will end within the next few months as this pattern is going to produce many severe weather risks next spring, unlike that what we have experienced in a few years.
What happened yesterday? A cold front was approaching the state line during half time of the Chiefs disaster in Tennessee (27-3 loss). A line of showers and thunderstorms developed and there were sightings of around a dozen or more funnel clouds as the thunderstorms tracked north of KC.
This was one of four or five tornadoes, where the funnels actually touched the ground, and there were sporadic reports of damage in some of our neighborhoods in small towns over northern Missouri. I was actually a bit surprised at how early the thunderstorms formed, only by around two hours or so. I was at work by noon as the Chiefs game began, and then by half time I was still thinking the risk would be way off to the east, but then that line formed, and in less than 30 minutes the first thunderstorm went from not a cloud to a thunderstorm to producing a tornado near Troy, KS by 2:10 PM. And, then we were on the air with three straight hours of tracking these small EF0-EF1 type tornadoes.
This next storm coming our way will also have a severe weather risk, but much farther west. By the time we start seeing rain and possible thunderstorms the risk of severe should be very low. Hurricane Rick is going to get picked up and "spit out" into the plains and you won't believe where it will track? Right over KC!
Hurricane Rick:
Hurricane Rick is moving into Mexico this morning. Rick will get picked up by a major storm moving into the west coast today:
This map above shows Hurricane Rick wandering inland over the Mexico/Pacific coast line. A very strong storm system is spinning into California and the west coast today. We will remember this strong storm system that is within this year's LRC, and what it does next. It is a "player" in this years pattern and this will return. Look at where Rick tracks, and how the energy of the west coast storm evolves:
Rick will literally be obliterated as it crosses the Mexico mountains and there won't be much of this system left. At the same time, the energy of "Rick" will be tracking our way as the western storm becomes negatively tilted and reorganizes. Look below at what happens next:
There is a very little red shaded vorticity center right over eastern Kansas by Wednesday morning. I point to it with that arrow on this map above. I tracked this from what was Hurricane Rick to what is left of it. Pretty fascinating, but it may only mean a few extra rain showers in KC Wednesday morning, if it does indeed take this track. It fascinates me as I am always looking at the larger LRC picture. This is part of the pattern to pay close attention to for future cycles that will arrive during the winter, spring, and next fall.
Rainfall Forecast:
This strong storm system will be developing in the next 48 hours and it now appears that 1" to 2" of rain is likely in KC. We will go over the timeline of this next storm on KSHB-41 News today and tonight. These morning clouds should clear this afternoon with the wind calming down. I am going to take the dogs for a long walk later today.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog. Have a great start to the week.
Gary
