Good Wednesday bloggers,
The forecast has challenges even with the calmer weather. Let's go through this day by day.
TODAY: A warm front will be set up just north of our area. It will separate 50s in western Kansas from highs around 0 in the northern USA. It still looks like we will be barely on the warm side of this front, so highs will be in the 40s. A shift south by 100 miles will put our highs in the 30s. This seems unlikely at this time.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: The warmer air will surge north as the warm front tracks to the Great Lakes. It will become windy tonight into Thursday morning from the southwest, bringing in warmer air. Temperatures may drop to the 30s this evening and end up in the 40s by Thursday morning. The cold front to our west Thursday will retreat to the north before it arrives, keeping us in the warm air through Friday. So, what is challenging about this? Well, there is one set of data that is forming thick low clouds here on Thursday. It keeps them around through Friday. If this happens, then highs will be 35-45 instead of 50-55 like we are expecting. We lean with the warmer and sunnier solution. Now, we will have thick high clouds tonight, exiting Thursday, and periods of clouds Friday if the thick low clouds don't form.
SATURDAY: This is the day when the cold air blasts in. Temperatures will drop to the 20s and 30s. The challenge here is, will we see any light snow or mixed precipitation with the arrival of the cold? Right now it looks like any precipitation will be light and scattered with low impact. We will need to keep an eye on this.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: At the moment, these days pose the most forecast challenges. The cold air that arrives Saturday sets our region up for winter precipitation Sunday and Monday. We are now tracking two systems. One is possible Sunday and the other is possible later Sunday night and Monday. We are getting all kinds of solutions at this time. It does look like at least one of the systems will bring a decent band of snow to our part of the country. But, where will the systems track? Which one will be the more dominant one? When will they move through? These are the three main questions at this time and they pretty much include every scenario. So, we will just have to keep monitoring the data and updating the forecast. As always, as we get closer to day(s) of the event it comes more into focus. Stay tuned!
Have a great day.
